Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rajiv who wrote (2423)	8/17/2000 10:47:19 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 4155

BTW, how will longs sell 400 million shares ? Ask her no questions, she'll tell you no lies -VBG-

To: Rajiv who wrote (2423)	8/17/2000 11:00:52 AM
From: AK2004	Respond to of 4155

Rajiv re: Most of them are betting on deteriorating fundamentals. hmmm...... There is an obvious effects that would cause deterioration but those are well known and well priced in. Anything that you know that no one else does? Or rather do you managed to keep some sort of a secret in the "tiny" group that shorted 60 mil shares? I'd like to know but if you can not share because of the secrecy and such I would understand Regards -Albert

To: Rajiv who wrote (2423)	8/17/2000 11:05:28 AM
From: Elliot S.	Respond to of 4155

Rajiv--- <<And what is this obsession about "how will short-sellers cover 60+ million shares" ?>> My friend, you and I are making a bet, or if you prefer, you and I are taking a calculated risk. This is a classic long/short "winner take all". You are betting that the company cannot meet its debt obligations and will go "belly up" like BOST. Longs (like myself) are betting that the company will make it in some form or other, and then let the squeeze begin. Here's the difference on the risk/reward sides of the equation. From this price point (around 7 1/2 per share), I can lose 100% of my investment. You, on the other hand have a maximum of 7 1/2 points upside and who knows what your downside is if Gary Wendt pulls this off. I think, that my long position (disclosure: only 2000 shares at a cost basis of 9) lets me sleep better at night than your short. This company clearly has its problems, and is not "over the hump" by any means: its management has its work cut out for it. It must renegotiate its near term obligations. Even more important, it MUST get its 'A' rating back regarding its insurance operations. However, I think that it is equally clear that the company is not negative regarding its equity. It has already been established the company could fetch around 3B for its long term care operations (an area the GE is expanding into BTW), and other medical insurance operations could fetch another 4B. So, worst case scenario, is that CNC keeps its Life Insurance operations, sells its other insurance operations, and builds its Finance operations. I think that Gary Wendt could really do great things with the finance company alone, that is his forte. Another asset not mentioned lately in connection with its "non-core" assets (Argosy, the wireless assets, etc) is their interest in the GM building in NYC. This company does have assets. In short (pun intended), CNC does need a little help from its creditors to get by in the short term (apologies to the Beatles). However, it appears that the company has the ability to do it. It just depends upon how much of his foot Mr. Wendt needs to chew off to get out of the trap (if any). Even the down-graders of the CNC debt have expressed an opinion that CNC will be able to renegotiate with its bankers. Which brings me back to my point: I believe that with a time horizon of the end of the year, I have a downside risk from here of 7 1/2 points and an upside potential of 15 points. Your situation is the exact opposite. I like my risk/reward better, thank you, particularly with the current management team in place. No matter what anyone says, they do have credibility and a good track record. And...if CNC announces that they have made a deal with their creditors that allows for them to get their A rating back, the short stampede will begin, and doorway will not be wide enough, and some people will get squeezed in the gap up. It does puzzle me, I must admit, that Jacobs would try to trigger the short squeeze before hand. I am open to suggestions on that one. In the mean time, you might notice that equilibrium for now is around 7/share. The short positions act like salt in the dead sea. As soon as the price approaches 7, the price bobs back up as shorts cover. And no matter what bad news hits the wires, the stock cannot seem to break below 7. The catalyst for the break, one way or the other is around 30 days away... Good luck to you.

To: Rajiv who wrote (2423)	8/17/2000 2:09:05 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4155

"In case you are not aware" : Rajiv; pinkytoes; mammabear; infostream;: How does it FEEEEEEELLLLLL????? Pinky Gary’s got you by the cahones today… <vbg> HOW DOES IT FEEEEL??? To be all aloooone… Like a ... complete unknown...noooo??? ...Like a torpedo..... noooo??? LIKE A SQUEEEEEZED BALLLLL?? YEEEAAHHHH!!!!! Like a rolling stone amazon.com #5: Like a Rolling Stone amazon.com 7230-2860853 cheers and I'll get the Demerol for you pinky, rajiv I got some for you too, cheers, TA