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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (2668)	8/17/2000 2:34:31 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Heinz, We're at resistance, no question....trade deficit tomorrow. -------------- 13:22 ET 30-year: +6/32..5.729%....GNMAs: Unch....$-¥: 108.41 U.S. trade and the fiscal budget are released tomorrow before the markets adjourn for the weekend. The GDP assumptions showed a goods trade deficit consistent with the $31.5 bln consensus estimate. Ignoring revisions to prior months a larger record deficit strips some growth from next week's GDP revision, a smaller figure builds it still stronger from the 5.2% first reported. Stronger than expected business inventories and the large drop in June construction spending carry in to the revisions as well but largely offset each other. The July Treasury budget could land in either the red or the black from a $25 bln deficit a year earlier. Strong receipts and some calendar day shifts in outlays leaves the large improvement and an amazing $102 bln fiscal year to date bettering. FY00 should end with a surplus near $235 bln and will serve as fodder as presidential campaigning draws toward the deciding weeks -------- Mexican Peso and Danish Kroner rallying on oil. 12:40 ET 30-year: +7/32..5.727%....GNMAs: +1/32....$-¥: 108.43....Euro-$: 0.9150 September crude now up $0.80 at $32.60 a barrel. Gains likely capping some of the upside some of the upside in Treasuries. Not much going on in currencies following the earlier bounce in the euro. Recent oil surge seems to be providing an additional boost for the Mexican peso, as well as the Norwegian krone, which has been in rally mode since the beginning of August. ------------- Margin Pressures..... 10:35 ET 30-year: +10/32..5.721%....GNMAs: -2/32....$-¥: 108.58 Margin Pressures: Interesting little tidbit from this Philly Fed data, as we would note some heightened pressure on margins in August. The difference between prices paid and prices received jumped to 27.5% from 20.2% last month. In addition, it marked the highest difference since February, and came in well above the six month average of 22.0%.