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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (48244)	8/19/2000 12:30:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

HB, mynvo.com The SCY ratio, thoroughly discredited in it's original author's use, I find useful from a RELATIVE standpoint. What that means is that when it is making new lows (as it did last week), the market is truly getting riskier. For intermediate moves, it tends to move in a .1 to .2 change range as it went from .72 to .83 or so and is back down to .71 now. The ratio is the stock to cash yields which is calculated by adding the dividends and earnings of some index and dividing it by the 13 week coupon yield in treasuries. I use the S&P 500 index but the original author used the S&P 500 INDUSTRIAL index. The last major bottom was around 1.53 many years ago... and I have been recommending cash equivalents since last summer because of the low SCY. In fact, I made over 5% in the past year just in cash equivalents with no risk where you would have been hard-pressed to make money in your average mutual fund... many LOST money. I have been and still am suggesting the 8,000 level as the turnaround for the markets in a strong (read that "CRASH") sell-off mode. I believe that would put SCY back over 1.2 which is the original author's buy level... Does that help?