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To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2587)	8/18/2000 1:43:20 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3951

"That's wrong-headed," says Bollinger, "because what you're trading on here is perception, not growth." Must be hard on "flat-earthers." And I'm reminded of Edgar Allan Poe's "Is all that we see or seem but a dream within a dream?" Grasping at sand . . . Pat

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2587)	8/18/2000 11:10:02 AM
From: Boplicity	Respond to of 3951

re: That's wrong-headed," says Bollinger, "because what you're trading on here is perception, not growth." That is so right. Perception rules the market! Greg

To: Wyätt Gwyön who wrote (2587)	8/21/2000 12:19:55 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 3951

Just when you think you know them all, up pops another acronym. The latest (at least for me) is EDWA --- Erbium-doped waveguide amplifiers: fiberopticsonline.com{07E8076C-7461-11D4-8C58-009027DE0829}&Bucket=Features WSJ article on strength in fiber optic gear makers: interactive.wsj.com@2.cgi?mfmuse/text/autowire/data/BT-CO-20000818-003852.djml/&NVP=&template=atlas-srch-searchrecent-nf.tmpl&form=atlas-srch-searchrecent-nf.html&from-and=AND&to-and=AND&sort=Article-Doc-Date+desc&qand=&bool_query=fiber+optics&dbname=%26name1%3Ddbname%26name2%3Ddbname%26name3%3Ddbname%26period%3D%3A720&location=article&HI= August 18, 2000 Optical Gear Makers Expect Strong Sells To Continue By JOHNATHAN BURNS Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -- After beating Wall Street's earnings estimates Thursday, executives at fiber optics gear makers Ciena Corp. (CIEN) and ADC Telecommunications (ADCT) tossed investors an extra bone: they built up hope for the coming quarters. Stopping just short of saying now is the greatest time to be alive in the fiber optics space, both companies said they see no slowdown in demand for fiber optic gear, even as some on Wall Street worried that sagging valuations for start-up phone companies might damp spending. "We're feeling pretty bullish," Ciena Chief Operating Officer Gary Smith told Dow Jones Newswires. "From talking to our customers, large network buildouts continue to go on. The unending thirst for large data capacity is going to have to be met." Ciena said it expects to beat the First Call/Thomson Financial survey of analysts' earnings estimate of 23 cents a share in the company's ongoing fourth quarter. The company also said Thursday it expected to beat the First Call earnings estimates of $1.08 a share for 2001. The estimates have been revised upwards to 24 cents and $1.15, respectively. ADC didn't give any forward-looking guidance, reserving the right to make revisions at the end of its ongoing fourth quarter. ADC, which derives an estimated 20% of sales from start-up phone companies, said it is seeing no slowdown in spending from the concerns. "I see nothing that would cause us to be cautious in terms of (the rate of) capital spending," ADC Chief Executive Bill Cadogan said. "We see no flattening of demand as we head into next year. The (start-up phone companies) continue to give us as much business as we can handle." That sentiment echoes previous market assessments by systems makers such as Nortel Networks Corp. (NT), Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) and component makers JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU), Corning Inc. (GLW) and Agilent Technologies Inc. (A). Almost all of those companies have announced ambitious plans to increase production capacities. Drake Johnstone, a telecommunications analyst with Davenport & Co., said companies such as AT&T Corp. (T) and WorldCom Inc. (WCOM) are moving toward all-optical networks, increasing demand for the optical gear that increases capacity and accelerates traffic. "The traditional telcos are trying to increase capacities over their network," he said. "And their spending is going to continue for years to come." In a Thursday note, UBS Warburg analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos said the U.S. telecommunications equipment market will grow in excess of 35% this year, well above the historical rate of 15% to 25%. He said capital spending for next year is expected grow in the 20% to 30% range. Most telecommunications companies are expected to begin outlining their capital spending plans for 2001 within the next two quarters. Those numbers will be watched carefully, but it should be noted that service providers routinely underestimate their actual spending. Jim Jungjohann, a CIBC World Markets analyst with perhaps the most extensive coverage of the fiber optics sector, said the performance of fiber optics companies during the just-ended quarter illustrates that demand remains robust. "It's quite obvious after we went through the reporting period that anything and everyone dealing with fiber optics have just blown out the numbers," he said. "In the service side, I think what you're seeing from the original equipment manufacturers is basically that carriers are more expeditiously ramping to next generation networks than we'd previously thought."