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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (49300)	8/18/2000 2:16:17 AM
From: Augustus Gloop	Respond to of 63513

I believe in our life we will see a clean energy source that will change the world. It will happen....I can see it in my bowl of water..........or is that bong water?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (49300)	8/18/2000 11:47:13 AM
From: Junkyardawg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

I was thinking....(I do that from time to time although it does tend to cause serious side effects) the other day you said that Yahoo needed to cross $140 for the internets to be bullish.(I agree with that) I find it odd that just as Yahoo was about to cross that mark an analyst came out and downgaded the stock. hmmmmmm dawgy and his conspiracy theories,will he ever learn?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (49300)	8/18/2000 12:50:38 PM
From: arno	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

A few ruminations on Alaska and the recent oil topic..... It's been a few years since I was involved, so bear with me. Prudhoe Bay and it's sister field Kuparuk (the 2 largest in the US) had an estimated recoverable amount of 8-10 billion barrels upon discovery. With improved recovery techniques it was increased to 12b or so. The field started to decline about 10 years ago. At it's peak production, just over 2 million barrels a day was being produced, which is approximately the same as Kuwait. I believe today production is down to about a 1m/day +/-. The famous pipeline was designed for about 1.5m/day and with the addition of surfactants over capacitation was reached. Due to the size of the pipeline (48 inch), the problem is that once production falls to 400k - 600k the pipeline will no longer be able to be pressurized on a continual basis. Therefore unless new reserves are found the oil fields on the north slope of Alaska will not be able to be fully depleted and the huge infrastructure will be rendered useless. There is a tremendous amount of natural gas at Prudhoe, but it is all re-injected back into the formations. This is due to: 1) The gas is used to "lift" the oil, (no pump jacks) and the need to keep the field pressure up. Also, for every barrel of oil extracted an equivalent amount of seawater is also injected to maintain pressure. 2) the current pipeline is not suitable for gas transmission. So until something changes the gas in unavailable. As for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) this is not a small hurdle. I believe the oil is there, but in what quantity? About 20 years ago, Chevron et al was allowed to drill an exploratory well. In the terminology of the oil patch, it was a "tight" hole. So much so that it took an act of Congress to conceal the results. This is a unique situation as all data obtained in normal drilling operations becomes public after a certain length of time. ANWR is a big political football. The environmentalists scream bloody murder any time drilling is mentioned. The amount of acreage protected measures in the millions of square miles, and yet the area that is promising to drill is on the coastal plain, a very small area comparatively. Very few people ever venture into this area. One year 150 +/- people visited ANWR. When Prudhoe Bay and the pipeline were proposed the major complaint is that it would decimate the migratory caribou herds. As it turned out, that didn't happen and the herds have grown. For those that have not seen or studied about this area, it is nothing but tundra and the above ground temps are below freezing 9 months of the year. The other complaint was the environmental damage. As with anything else, the advancement in technology and technique of drilling/production on the North Slope has improved immensely. I believe the oil companies would be able to minimalize the impact if given the chance to drill. If drilling was allowed in ANWR and viable reserves are found, it would take at least 5 years before it ever hit automobile gas tanks. If the field was as big as Prudhoe Bay and could produce 2m/day this is about a 1/6 of daily domestic consumption. It all boils down to cost. IMO, the US will never be self sufficient at a cost that is tolerable to the public. The amount of reserves in Saudi Arabia alone could supply the world for several decades at a production cost of 2-3 dollars a barrel. As for alternatives to OPEC, I think we should explore other avenues, but if the American public cries about 2 dollar gas, just wait. Here's a factoid that I'm sure not many know. Locked up in the tar sands and oil shales of western Colorado and eastern Utah are the equivalent of oil reserves of Saudi Arabia! That's right...but at a cost of approximately 50 dollars a barrel and the distasteful thoughts of huge open pit strip mines. People wouldn't stand for it. Due to several factors, the US oil industry has been dying for a long time. The opportunity for domestic exploration has been reduced. The enviros, OPEC cheap production costs, to name a couple. With the decline of opportunity came the effect of "brain" drain. When I left the industry, we were facing imminent layoffs and I had already been laid off twice in my career. I wanted the third time to be on my own terms. I could have gone anywhere overseas, Venezuela, Angola, Malaysia, Russia. Places not exactly high on my to do list. I mentioned Kuwait earlier, here's another factoid I'm sure not many know. Remember the fires from the gulf war? A simple little device called a subsurface safety valve would've prevented the devastation that occurred there. A SSV is required on all wells on the North Slope. Essentially it is a little "flapper" valve that requires high hydraulic pressure to remain open. At the instant when Iraq "blew" the Kuwait wells this valve would have closed, effectively shutting the well down. Why did they not have them? Who knows? I'm sure it has something to do with not having active enviro watch dogs. The enviros have kept the US oil industry on their toes, for sure. I'm not against all enviro issues. As with anything else, there are extremists on any issue. So what is the purpose of this post? To reiterate the fact we are dependent on imported oil, unless we want to pay for it, and also to point out that the unknown reserves of ANWR are not the panacea to our problems. The US is an oil junkie and OPEC is the dealer. Also, I needed to kill some time today...... arno Another factoid: The largest current storage capacity we have today is in the fuel tank of every vehicle. If the perception is presented that there is a shortage of gasoline, then people will fill their tanks and create that shortage. This is exactly what spurred the "oil crisis" of the 70's.