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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (15918)	8/18/2000 3:32:36 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Gregg, Marvin also forgot to add in the positive investments. Yes, NetZero has gone asymptotic towards $4 from a buy price of $15 or so. But on Globalstar, QUALCOMM has made a lot of money. First, they sold the idea to the partners who were the ones who put up the capital. The partners then hired QUALCOMM to do the job, which was done and paid for. Now Q! is sitting on about 10% [after warrants and stuff] of the stock which is worth $8 a share. So even just looking for the negatives, Globalstar can't be put in the equation. They also are selling handsets by the thousand and we can expect them to keep doing that, with 10 million being sold by the time Constellation2 is full. Ericy and Telit [maybe Hyundai too] will sell the rest and pay Q! a royalty [after buying the ASIC]. Marvin is looking for the negatives. With NetZero, the game is not over yet and while currently asymptotic down towards $4, it could go positively exponential any day and added to WWeb devices, Q! will make a fortune. "Fools and children shouldn't see a job half done". Also, "A poor workman always blames his tools" [such as Iridium which was a bad tool]. That is because a good workman always has GOOD tools so he can do good work. And another slogan, since it's a sunny day: Don't let a slogan do your thinking for you. Q! and G! have got a technological and market pathway open to them which is bigger than anything in human history. Okay, that's a slight understatement - I'm like Irwin, I don't like to overstate my case. This is bigger than anything since DNA formed a chain. I'm serious! This is The New Paradigm and it is an unbounded opportunity for humanity. The limit will be the imagination, energy, determination and competitiveness [plus other things] of the people who work at the companies. Microsoft's new slogan, to replace their venerable A Computer on Every Desk and in Every Home which lasted nearly quarter of a century [like Moore's law] has been replaced with their new motto Major Paradigm Shift Happens [pun intended]. Q! and G! are at the epicentre of The Major Paradigm Shift. Some would say G! is up Shift Creek without a paddle [to use the joke again...it's good to laugh at one's own jokes and enjoy them]. We'll see. Of course, there was never going to be a computer in every home because the digital divide is just representative of the difference between the smarter and slower ends of the human species. The gap will keep on growing since there is no upper limit and the lower limit is always zero. The slowest of people were never going to use computers. They can talk, with a small vocabulary, but can't read. They will have WWeb devices which give them information they need, so 99% of people will have those, same as telephones. The information management in WWeb devices can be really simple, unlike a PC, which is a pain in the neck just to unpack, let alone switch on and use. Still! Mqurice That's why we have a big lump over our eyebrows - those without couldn't keep up. The harsh facts of evolution. Which is not going away since women still choose men and they aren't choosing at the bottom of the barrel [mostly].

To: Gregg Powers who wrote (15918)	8/18/2000 5:28:43 PM
From: not925	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29987

Gregg wrote: "It is most useful to separate psychology from quantitative reality." Quantitatively, how is GSTRF a good long today at $8.25/sh ($2.4 billion market cap. w/ 290M fully diluted shares outstanding)? Quantitatively, and conservatively, could we agree on the following situation: $200 per sub per year (i.e., assume: $0.40/minute x 40 minutes/month x 3 months/quarter x 4 quarter/year) Burn-rate of $500M per year 2.5M subs are needed for net break even. ($500M/$200) Now, let's assume the project ramps quickly to 4 million subs four years from today. So, with 4 million subs, operating profit will be approx $200M net after-tax ((4M-2.5M) * $200 * (1 - 35% tax)). Assume the valuation of tech stocks are more rational four years from today, and the market provides GSTRF with a p/e of 30, then the market cap will be $6 billion (btw, this works out to $1500 per sub). The market cap today is $2.4 billion. Knowing that 4M subs four years out is a hugely optimistic assumption given today's rollout/cash-flow situation; quantitatively, and conservatively, how is GSTRF a good long today at $8.25/sh (or $2.4 billion market cap)? Also, quantitatively, how should we view the down-side (before looking up, as I have tried to do above)? Is there another way to do the math?, to change my assumptions?, or to look at the situation from another prospective? (Above, I assumed Moore's Law will march forward and that handset prices and size will be cut in half 2 years from today. I also assume MOU per month will go up from today's 40, but that price-per-minute charged will also decline proportionally. Therefore, the $200 per sub per year figure is held at current levels.)