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Technology Stocks : Broadband Wireless Access [WCII, NXLK, WCOM, satellite..] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DubM who wrote (1306)	8/18/2000 5:53:49 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1860

Partly OT I think we are in the early stages of a major bear market for telecom service providers. We have already discussed interest rates and lack of accessibility of the junk bond market as well as pricing collapse in the long distance voice market. I think that the market is now pricing in a bandwidth glut (whether this glut is real or imaginary remains to be seen). Let's face it during the last few years every Tom, Dick and Harry has been laying down fiber like crazy: we have brand new networks in QWST, LVLT, WCG, GBLX, Broadwing, TSIX in the US, and KNN-Qwest, VYTL, CONE, GTS in Europe, with more over the horizon (Annunziata has reemerged as Chairman of a new company which is again, laying down fiber, several European startups have also been formed in this area). The European wireless guys are spending money on 3G auctions like drunken sailors. The market's reaction is predictably to shut the door and pound all the culprits into dust. Ultimately, this will settle itself. If the supply is shut off and the demand for BW keeps growing, the survivors will make a lot of money. Thus, I see during the next 18 to 24 months an opportunity similar to the semis in Oct 98 or the oil services companies in March 99. However, I do not think the bottom will come any time soon. My guess is that the bottom will probably occur during the middle of next year if we have a steep market correction or bear market. The sign of a bottom will be like the semis in Oct 98 when the sector stops going down even when other sectors are getting killed. Right now telecom companies are getting killed even when the market is fine.