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To: geewiz who wrote (12121)8/18/2000 12:51:12 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Respond to of 436258
 
geewiz, you're quite right about the nature and size of an eventual correction. we are here merely having differences over the timing, not the event as such.

the covering potential is mainly concerning the huge commercials short position in the spoos. normally they are right, if early. if they are right again, the market could suffer quite a collapse in coming weeks. however, in the rare instances when they have been wrong in the past, their covering of their positions has fueled big rallies (this extends not necessarily just to stocks - it's a phenomenon that can be observed in all futures markets when diametrically opposed extreme positions were taken by the different classes of market participants).

as for sentiment, we have seen a series of historic extremes this year, but they have yet to be reached again in this current rally. the sentiment extremes seen thus far would point to the likelihood of market weakness in the medium to long term as well. these excesses wont be unwound with a slight dip.