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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: niceguy767 who wrote (5573)	8/18/2000 2:11:31 PM
From: Maverick	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

ML raises semi 00 growth to 40%, 01 to 26%, advises buying semi aggressively Semiconductor stocks rise on Merrill Lynch notes NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - Semiconductor stocks rose on Friday after two Merrill Lynch analysts issued positive forecasts for companies in both the semiconductor and semiconductor capital equipment sectors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index , comprised of 30 chip stocks, was up 2.63 percent, or 29.43 points, to 1140.49 in afternoon trade. Analyst Joe Osha said he raised his estimates for global revenue growth for the chip industry to 40 percent from 32 percent for 2000 and to 26 percent from 21 percent for 2001. ``Improving pricing underlies our new forecasts,'' Osha wrote in a note to clients. ``Capital spending relative to forecast revenue and volume in 2000 remains at reasonable to low levels, and we expect a period of sustained pricing strength in the latter half of the year as capacity restrictions really begin to bite.'' He added, ``Names in the communications-oriented and foundry business are of particular interest to the current environment.'' He told investors to focus on names including Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE:TXN - news), which rose 2-15/16 to 70 on the New York Stock Exchange; STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM - news), up 3/4 to 62-5/8 in U.S. trade; and Cypress Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE:CY - news), up 1-3/4 to 46-3/16. He also named Atmel Corp. (NasdaqNM:ATML - news), which was up 3 to 36-5/16; Analogue Devices Inc. (NYSE:ADI - news), up 3/4 to 94-1/4; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM - news), up 13/16 to 35-15/16; and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Inc. (NasdaqNM:CHRT - news), up 2-1/4 to 86-1/8. Osha said semiconductor stocks globally are well below their March highs and the mid-cycle correction has ended. ``We would advise investors to begin buying semiconductor (stocks) more aggressively,'' he wrote. Analyst Bret Hodess wrote that growth rates for both orders and revenues in the semiconductor capital equipment industry were just a bit above his estimates for the sector, and that semiconductor sales growth is trending above the 32 percent upward revision made two months ago ``We believe that semiconductor capacity is required relative to semiconductor demand,'' he wrote in a note to clients. ``Thus, we remain comfortable that supply will continue to tighten in the normal seasonally strong fall/winter period for semiconductors, providing a catalyst for stock appreciation in the group.'' Shares in Varian Semiconductor Equipment Inc. (NasdaqNM:VSEA - news), a maker of semiconductor processing equipment, rose 10 percent after a Lehman Brothers analyst raised his rating on the stock to ``buy'' from ``neutral.'' Varian was up 5-1/16 to 52-3/4, recovering some of the losses suffered earlier this month after a warning by chip assembly equipment maker Kulicke & Soffa Industries Inc. (NasdaqNM:KLIC - news). Lehman analyst Ed White said he believes industry forecasts for ion implant growth are too conservative. ``Thus, we believe that Varian can post higher-than-expected top-line (revenue) growth in fiscal years 2000 and 2001,'' he wrote in a note to clients. Varian has the potential to beat the earnings per share estimates in 2000 and 2001, he said. He raised his 2001 earnings per share estimate for Varian to $4.22 from $4.15 and boosted his price target on Varian shares to $85 from $63.

To: niceguy767 who wrote (5573)	8/18/2000 2:21:53 PM
From: Ali Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<I just don't think one is wise to ignore AMD current earnings and prospective going forward earnings because they have had problems in the past...> I does not matter what you or me think about it. What does matter is how average mass investor and investment houses see current situation. And with the historical tail, AMD will receive smaller valuations, maybe always, and drop faster than the sector during shake-offs. Not sure about pops though. Regards, - Ali

To: niceguy767 who wrote (5573)	8/18/2000 2:31:22 PM
From: Epinephrine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Niceguy, <AMD is a very different company now than they were in the past> I think that you underestimate the time that it takes for sentiment to change. They may be wrong but there are many previously burned analysts and investors that are not convinced that things are different this time. In fact I think that the current stock drop is a tremendously healthy thing for investor perceptions of AMD. In the past AMD has struggled for and attained a modicum of success only to encounter difficulties and disappoint investors. There are a huge number of paranoid investors out there that have seen AMD's stock repeatedly make a large run up only to fall straight back down to previously levels and stay there. It's happened several times. But if AMD can rally out of this drop, continue to execute, and resume the stock's climb then the past pattern will have failed and I think that would go a long way towards changing the perception that any drop in AMD's stock is a signal that the good times are over and it is time to head for the exits. The retracement and ultimate hold and resumption of climb will possibly instill the investor confidence that it is indeed different this time. But changes in sentiment may take longer than you think. JMHO, Epinephrine