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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/18/2000 3:41:15 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin re <<Evidence at retail suggests that AMD cannot make the 7 million target (promise) for the quarter. K6-2 has dried up, and Duron is not being sold at retail by any large OEM. More than half of the quarter is already gone. All we have is Jerry's continued guidance.>> I agree that lack of Duron is not good. But in a way that bodes very well considering that 3.6 million Athlon cores still will be sold this quarter. I doubt any more than 800K of those are Durons. That means an increase of 1 million Athlon from last quarter, that should do wonders for the EPS number. Considering the latest guidance, I no longer think that there is any chance of AMD missing the current estimate for the quarter. PC's for Q4 are currently being designed by the tier one OEM's. I would think that Duron is a major player there. Mani

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/18/2000 3:44:35 PM
From: dougSF30	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

For all our sakes, I hope Duron does NOT make a big September appearance. I'd prefer my 3.6M K7's to be made up of as many Tbirds as possible. Would you please cite the source of your retail evidence? I assume it is global and not merely U.S.-based? And when you say that K6-2 has dried up, what exactly do you mean? Not available on pricewatch? Here for example are the HP pavillion notebooks, 9 out of 14 featuring the K6-2 family: hp.com (you need to click on 3100, 3200, and 3300 families to count them all) I find it unlikely AMD will not "approach 7 million units" and sell 3.6M K7's, given that Jerry reiterated this AGAIN just yesterday. Doug

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/18/2000 3:46:43 PM
From: Maverick	Respond to of 275872

OEM normally orders chips well in advance of holiday season. It takes some time to design the box. The PCs don't start to show up at retail or direct order firms until Oct. ML did channel check not relying on AMD's guidance. Demand is very strong for Athlon & Duron. Duron demand is even more robust. Sept - Dec are very busy mos. for chip makers as OEM pent-up demand surges. AMD sold everything it could make. That also includes flash.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/18/2000 4:27:37 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Pravin: Not too worried about the Q3 7 million number as long as whatever the number is includes 3.6 million Athys...Mr. Ruiz seemed confident on both counts just one week ago...He's experienced enough that I'll accept his guidance...Personally, given AMD's price/performance edge over its competition at all levels, I can't imagine AMD not selling all it produces...As long as motherboard and production hold up, I don't get the feeling based on recent guidance and fairly strong market with scholl cycle beginning anew, that 7 million in Q3 and 9 million in Q4 is out of line.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/18/2000 11:36:31 PM
From: crazyoldman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Pravin, Re: K6-2 has dried up... Indeed the K6-2 appears to have dried up but I do have an encouraging report from a reliable source, that source being Mrs. CrazyMan. Turns out she dropped by our Best Buy store today and took time to observe AMD's retail offerings. Not a K6 to be found amongst the mobile offerings, however, and this is the good news, 6 of the 10 mobiles offered were powered by AMD K6-2+ chips. Lowest was 500MHz and the highest was 550MHz. The 4 Intel mobiles had their highest speed at 600MHz. Our reporter (God bless her soul) does not remember the lowest mobile Intel MHz. Of the desktop selection, AMD rules! Both CPQ and HP AMD based machines were represented in frequencies as follows: the lowest frequency is not remembered (God bless her soul) and the highest was 1GHz. Our gracious reporter does remember lots of AMD machines in the 850MHz-950MHz range. I quote her here, "I started checking out the CPQ 1 GHz machine and moved down the line to lower speed machines and saw 900MHz AMD, 850MHz AMD... finally I gave up on the MHz and just saw AMD, AMD, AMD...as I was moving down the line a customer asked the salesman when did CPQ come out with the new front cover (it's translucent blueish grey, not bad looking). Then all of a sudden the display began looking a little crappy, kind of cluttered and pushed together, smaller screens, etc. unlike the AMD section where there was definitely more space between machines, I was then in the Intel section. I don't remember if CPQ had an Intel 733MHz but in the HP section the highest speed Intel machine was a 733MHz. That was the fastest Intel machine available. HP was well represented with high speed AMD machines up to 950MHz". Looks like Jerry has a chance at selling those 3.6 million processors that he is so confident that he can. Kindest regards, CrazyMan

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/19/2000 12:22:41 AM
From: Cirruslvr	Respond to of 275872

Pravin - RE: "Evidence at retail suggests that AMD cannot make the 7 million target (promise) for the quarter. K6-2 has dried up, and Duron is not being sold at retail by any large OEM. More than half of the quarter is already gone. All we have is Jerry's continued guidance." I'm pretty confident AMD will meet its goals of processors sales because they have consistently reiterated they plan to meet their 7M goal. First at Q2 earnings release, then in a meeting with some Wall Street firm, and again in the press release for the "commenced shipments" of 1.1GHz Athlons. I think AMD learned its lesson about guidance last year... It doesn't appear as if they will sell 7M processors if we look at US retail only. Maybe Europe and Japan are stronger markets for AMD processors than we think.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (5611)	8/21/2000 12:53:52 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 275872

Pravin, Evidence at retail suggests that AMD cannot make the 7 million target (promise) for the quarter. K6-2 has dried up, and Duron is not being sold at retail by any large OEM. I noticed the gradual disappearance of K6-2 from desktops, but it will continue to exist in the notebook market, which means that the lowest price CPU - desktop K6-2 will be gone, and only the slightly higher priced K6-2+ will be around. It's not a huge difference, but let's say a $10 difference on 3.6 million chips adds something to the bottom line. Joe