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To: Zach E. who wrote (12176)	8/18/2000 4:51:35 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

absolutely. but he DID successfully predict the April crash, as well as the rally beginning last year in October that preceded it. so i wouldn't dismiss him out of hand - he tends to be a little early at times. if one looks at a longer term, weekly chart of the NDX/COMP indices, the similarities to the Nikkei chart in the late '80's/early '90 is quite baffling. it is imo conceivable that the resolution will be similar, especially as the surrounding fundamentals of the bubble are eerily similar too. of course i'm not married to this opinion, i merely think one should keep it under consideration, just in case. if Dhruv's count is correct, we would indeed look at a repeat. interestingly, the Nikkei's secondary top occurred on July 18 1990, after a multi month retracement rally off the lows of the first stage of the crash. the second , and worse crash stage bottomed in early October, from which bottom another quite significant rally ensued. since then we have seen a decade of rally attempts, all of which have failed to bring the index even close to it's previous high. i personally think it is unlikely that the same fate will befall the NAZ, but i won't rule it out either.