Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8070)	8/18/2000 5:47:32 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Mike, Thanks for the broadband stats. I'm curious which research organizations you used for this compilation? TIA, Ray

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8070)	8/21/2000 10:00:57 PM
From: D. K. G.	Respond to of 12823

August 21, 2000 RBOCs Predicted Winners In DSL Race telecomweb.com ==== Mike, a few more data snippets for you. Thanks for that compilation. regards, dkg

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8070)	8/23/2000 6:39:39 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: USA Broadband Stats - ExciteAtHome(sym:ATHM) Subs Thread- IF(key word) this is accurate, and ExciteAtHome is counting strictly cable modem subs, then apparently my figures(linked url above 8070) are substantially underestimating CM subs for year end 2000. The current subs counted by ATHM and Roadrunner, seem to somewhat correlate with the figures linked above. Funny the article didn't even mention the third high speed CM ISP, High Speed Access(sym:HSAC). -MikeM(From Florida) CM- cable modem __________________________ *ExciteAtHome Subscribers Surpass 2 Million Mark* REDWOOD CITY, Calif.- Internet service provider ExciteAtHome Corp. said Wednesday it has surpassed the 2 million-subscriber mark for its high-speed, always-on home service. The figure excludes subscribers contributed by Excite Chello, a venture formed in July with Netherlands-based high-speed ISP chello broadband. ``ExciteAtHome has been and continues to be the leader in terms of U.S. subscribers,'' said Dylan Brooks, an analyst at Jupiter Communications, noting that of the two million subscribers about 1.5 million were in the U.S. ``Road Runner (the venture in which Time Warner Inc has a stake) has about a million subscribers in the U.S. and beyond that it drops off steeply to DSL (digital subscriber line) providers such as Prodigy Communications Corp.'' The company believes the subscriber growth will only climb as broadband, which offers high-speed Internet access to rich and interactive data, gains more acceptance in the U.S. Analysts predict that the there will be 13 million broadband users by the end of 2002, according to research firm eMarketer. ExciteAtHome continues to target three million total subscribers by year end 2000, excluding subscribers to be added through the Excite Chello transaction.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8070)	9/1/2000 7:13:09 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: Worldwide Broadband Stats - DSL out of Alcatel(sym:ALA) Thread- Some interesting figures out of ALA(thanks Ken). They seem to correlate with what I posted upstream about the overall DSL stats and forecasts for USA telcos at: Message 14238677 If you consider that Alcatel's stats are worldwide, then one would estimate the projections for the USA are most likely on track. I also noticed that France Telecom was in ALA's comments, yet Deutsche Telekom was lacking. DT seems to give fits to their DSL suppliers. The most recent candidate is ECI Telecom(sym:ECIL). IMVHO I think ECIL is an overlooked company but one should do DD before even thinking about investing. It's going through a major change that either may or may not pan out. Some of what ALA released is pure marketecture and if you read closely, you can see where it is. -MikeM(From Florida) ____________________________ Alcatel Reaffirmed by Dell'Oro as Worldwide DSL Market Leader ADSL Market Share for Second Quarter 2000 Increases to 54% PARIS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 31, 2000--Alcatel today announced that new research by Dell'Oro Group has reaffirmed the company's huge worldwide lead in the ADSL market. Alcatel's ADSL market share as measured by line shipments into central offices during the second quarter of 2000 increased to 54.2%, more than three times that of its nearest competitor. Alcatel has shipped more ADSL lines than all other suppliers combined since volume shipments began in 1998, according to Dell'Oro data. "In the second quarter of 2000, ADSL continued to be the DSL technology of choice, representing 76% of all DSL lines shipped," said Willem Verbiest, vice president responsible for Alcatel's DSL business. "ADSL continues to grow at the expense of SDSL, and Alcatel is clearly the market and technology leader in that space." Moreover, Alcatel's cumulative market share increased ten percentage points over the same period last year to 54%, while the share of its nearest competitor declined eleven percentage points to only 13%. Overall Alcatel shipped more than one million ADSL lines in the second quarter, bringing the total for the year-to-date to 1.8 million. In June of this year Alcatel up-rated its forecast for total DSL shipments in 2000 to 5 million, and these latest market figures put the company on target to achieve that goal. "The challenge for Alcatel in aggressively growing shipments in the ADSL market has become one of supply, not demand." said Pearse Flynn, president of Alcatel's carrier networking group. "Our order book is huge, and our efforts are shifting so that we can manage our supply chain for the benefit of our many ADSL customers world-wide, in the face of an industry wide components shortage. These figures prove that we can do just that." Alcatel's market share is fuelled by sales to the world's largest and most successful network operators, most at the beginning of aggressive and large-scale ADSL rollouts. In North America, SBC Communications, Verizon, Bell South, Bell Canada and New Edge Networks are in the vanguard of ADSL deployment. There are an estimated 130 million local copper pairs connecting homes to the telephone network in North America, and each one is potentially a DSL connection. The picture in Europe is as positive. Alcatel's high profile European customers include France Telecom; KPN of the Netherlands; Telefonica of Spain; Telecom Italia; Belgacom; Swisscom; Telekom Austria. In the UK, BT launched its initial broadband portfolio to service providers, corporates and other licensed operators on June 29 this year and yesterday launched its entry-level broadband offering -- BT IPStream 500 -- using Alcatel's ADSL modem technology. BT's rollout currently covers 35% of UK households, equating to 7.3 million homes and over 1 million businesses. Kingston Communications, a competitive service provider in the UK market, is currently offering one of the most advanced ADSL-based services in the world. Customers have the option of subscribing to 55 channels of high-quality broadcast digital television, on-demand movies, fast always-on Internet browsing, email and telephony. Kingston's aggressive roll-out plans will move up a gear on the advent of local loop unbundling in Europe. In Asia Pacific major customers include Singapore Telecom; Telstra of Australia; Shanghai PTA; Hong-Kong Telecom. Hanaro Telecom of Korea is Alcatel's second largest ADSL customer world-wide. South America is also a burgeoning market for ADSL, and last quarter Alcatel shipped to customers in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile. Mr. Flynn added: "The textbooks say that when you have more than double the market share of your nearest competitor in a tornado market, you own that market. Alcatel is the 'A' in ADSL."

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8070)	9/30/2000 6:03:55 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 12823

Re: USA and NA Broadband Stats - DSL justone- I wanted to tie your url to my previous stats postings at: Message 13435128 Message 14238677 For kicks(and since these still pop up in search engine) here's the PR out of currently near book value Paradyne(feels like 1994 DSL land all over again) on their DSL lines deployed: Message 13465441 And here's the latest spin ALA routinely puts out concerning their DSL worldwide stats(which ZO just re-referenced too): Message 14313877 elmatador- In just a general review of the figures and fluff put out by the vendors, I'm guessing there are going to be about a total of 3 or 4 million ADSL lines deployed out there by year end 2000. Of course I'm speaking of worldwide. I'm hoping most of my references are ADSL. Or maybe the vendors are fudging the results by including IDSL, SDSL, and even HDSL? All along I had just assumed everyone was talking ADSL. Since your, "ADSL is dead," opinion, I'm questioning my figures. -MikeM(From Florida) *********************** End of Q200: -1,391,478 DSL line deployed in North America -1,204,478 DSL lines in USA _________________ North American DSL Market Nears 1,400,000 Lines** August 14, 2000-- DSL lines in service in North America totaled 1,391,478 at the end of second quarter 2000, according to new statistics published by TeleChoice. The U.S. had 1,204,478 DSL lines in service at quarter's end. U.S. ILECs accounted for 76% of the total, followed by CLECs with 23% and IXCs with about 1%. The IXC deployment figures include only facilities-based deployments and not resold DSL lines. Canada had 187,000 DSL lines in service. To gather this data, TeleChoice interviews each DSL facilities-based service provider on a quarterly basis. These figures represent an impressive 59% overall increase in U.S. deployed lines over the end of first quarter 2000 figures. Led by SBC's nearly 100% growth, ILECs increased their base by 62% while CLECs increased their installed base of DSL lines by 55%. In Canada, the installed base of DSL lines grew by 46%. "DSL's growth rate continues to increase while cable has begun to stagnate," says TeleChoice DSL Analyst Patrick Hurley. "Better availability of self-install modems, competitive pricing, and the advent of some innovative new services are really driving subscribership." "Getting service out there quickly and efficiently remains the key for now," added TeleChoice Analyst Adam Guglielmo, "but in the coming months services will play an increasingly important role in attracting and retaining customers."