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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: adcpres who wrote (27955)	8/18/2000 5:41:59 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I haven't decided if the longer term trends are up or down yet. Next week could be either a buying opportunity or a shorting opportunity. <ggg> While my gut and some internals charts say we are getting healthier, I still see too many manic moves and the abundance of both short and long term bearish wedges coupled with the low VIX which tells me we could still get a real shocker for the bulls. We are better but not out of the woods yet. Many of my longs were based solely on TA or else I am counting on a few mania bounces here and there. My UTX trades were because I noticed them covering 60 strike calls this week on dips around noon then allowing it to float back up so I scalped it Wednesday and Thursday. I wanted but missed CPWR because the options were cheap and it had increasing volume the last couple weeks on little price movement. My cycles were pointing to next week however so I waited. SFA was a scalp that I should have held and Dennis and I briefly mentioned it here. I was afraid to hold it because my weekly charts were signalling a sell and my dialy charts were signalling buy. I chose to day trade it rather than position trade it which proved to be wrong. WMT is on a support line and is signalling over sold so I dipped but probably should have waited for a firm buy signal. I figure it should get a bounce sometime in the next year on some manic excuse so I picked up a LEAP on a dip this morning and will add more if/when I get a firm buy signal. WCOM I posted on our site since I had support at 33 and I like catching this one when things line up. Dennis gives me a hard time about it but I just tend to have good luck with it. The 33 to 36 bounce gave me enough cushion that even my slow rear end could get a couple on. -g- I will not hold anything when my cycles top out in September and I may be whole hog short to boot. I still think we are grossly over priced on most of the popular stocks and think we need a good fleecing of the BTD crowd. I also agree with Don that we will have hard times in the next few years. I think we are both fundamentally and technically reaching our peak. The government stats saying no inflation is hog wash. I make more than twice what I did 5 years ago and am in no better shape than I was then using only my real job's pay as spending money. Cars cost 3 times what they used to, Gas is double, Houses are up 50% at least in most parts of the country, food is expensive and utilities are up big as well. We have to pay for school stuff that used to be free in public scholls, medical costs are through the roof!!! I just received the bill for my son's 2 week stay in the hospital and it was over $45,000. I don't know what the government uses for it's numbers but it isn't anything we need to survive on this planet. Sorry for the rant. Guess I am suffering from sticker shock after reading so many posts about no inflation and then opening this bill. My gut says we go up a spell but my charts are mostly showing over bought and numerous bearish patterns or price /volume action. The rally after the FOMC may prove to be a better shorting opportunity than a buying opportunity. I hopefully will know more when I get my data downloaded and study the charts this weekend. Good Luck, Lee