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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lml who wrote (8076)	8/18/2000 7:10:26 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

VZ has had the underpinnings in a number of residential neighborhoods for advanced dsl for quite some time. The fiber and an inventory of ready- and just-in-time VDSL, if they chose to deploy. They haven't, except for some instances of Next Level hardware supported services. Otherwise, there's a bunch of fiber just coiled up out there, waiting to be fired up. But not for reasons that can be deduced by using the normal metrics and observatins found on these boards. It's called reverse muscular tension, with a little procrastinatin thrown in. And some very long planning and coordination considerations, as WTC once wrote about. I'm rather certain that it's also due to both the fear of self-cannibalization, and not just a little paralysis from analysis. Message 12561661 He notes: "You also wonder if they will soon start pitching an extra few billion dollars to convert deep-fiber-fed ADSL to a bit deeper fiber fed VDSL. Who knows? All you are sure of is that ADSL, or ADSL upgraded to VDSL, suffers the capability ceiling exactly as Frank C. has noted. At least you have this PON alternative. What to do with it? For "only" $40 million a year, we can start seeding PON facilities that pass 2 million households a year. [remember, this is a hypothetical, fantasy cost, please.] Of course, to use any of that investment, say, to get to 10% penetration each year, it will cost another $10 million -- what a bargain. Does the system look economic with 10% penetration? Well, no, I need 25%. So let's "plan" 25% penetration each year. Still only $25 million a year. Great!" When you are very large it's a bear to scale up all at once, and that's been the traditional style of ILECs because of their mandates to make their residential services available to everyone in their service areas. Smaller outfits don't have this "problem." Such a problem to have!