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To: Sig who wrote (3925)	8/19/2000 9:53:39 AM
From: DlphcOracl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13572

Sig: The Death of "Buy and Hold". Up until this year, I was convinced that "buy and hold" was still the best investment strategy for larger cap, franchise tech stocks. The 25-40% correction during the summer slowdown was predictable, but trying to time the peak and buy at the bottom, with tax consequences factored in, usually was not profitable. This past Spring has taught me differently. When franchise tech stocks sell of 50-75%, which they did from March 7 through May 21, it is obvious that this strategy no longer makes sense. In the future, I will sell a considerable portion of my holdings in late February and early March, short the NASDAQ, and then wait to buy these same stocks back. Someone once said that if you were going to invest in tech stocks, one should do so only from mid-September through mid-March and take the next six months off. Although this was said "tongue in cheek", the NASDAQ's action this year and the hypervolatility of today's NASDAQ market make this a strategy to seriously consider.

To: Sig who wrote (3925)	8/19/2000 10:33:20 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13572

sig, re: <<Two things difficult actions seem to be required, one is leaving a mo-mo stock on the way up and forgetting about the potential future gains, and the other is to find enough confidence in an unfamiliar stock to put some real money in it.>> very wise. One of my flaws has been basking in the glow of a great run, and not paying enough attention to what other stocks might have staying power and be leaders of the market going forward. I have been lucky that last few years with my IOM/AOL to DELL to QCOM/JDSU hopscotch, but the field has been so leveled and more importantly changes are happening faster and faster that one change could be running the course while the other sea changes that have been identified by other investors and are already half way through thier gains by the time your other holdings are done. I had blinders on last year with my outsize gain in QCOM and JDSU while the b2b, CRM, storage and the CSCO wanabes were plowing ahead. I believe I got lucky we had the drop in the spring to be able to buy the infra plays I did buy then. I always said job one for any investors is to identify what sectors and stocks that will be leading the market 6 to 12 months from now. So in sum, while your busy with one stock or group of stocks, the stocks that might be the future leaders could very well be right under your nose and gaining right along with one you are spending all you time on. So yes diversification is a must, not only within a sector but with other future bright ideas. Which brings me to this statement. Right now I have concentrated my account in infra plays (see this link for the stocks I in my account siliconinvestor.com that will building out the promise of broadband wireless and wireland with eye on the clean power that will be needed for all this equipment. Now that I built my account to reflect my above stated thinking, I'm going start identify what software and the companies that turn it out that will be the big beneficiaries of all this equipment that will be installed. We could very come to a point that the infra money that is being spend might start to level out, while the software that will be needed for all this bandwidth and computing power will grow exponentially for sometime. Greg

To: Sig who wrote (3925)	8/19/2000 8:08:20 PM
From: DOUG H	Respond to of 13572

and the other is to find enough confidence in an unfamiliar stock to put some real money in it. Yup, I was trying to find folks who were interested in ARMHY last fall for an opinion and it seemed no one knew about them. After a 500% gain some attention went that way and now the stock has languished. The more limelight a stock gets, the more scrutiny it recieves from both bulls and bears. Though the bulls tend to fall into denial as to the worth of a stock. BTW that's a pretty nice long base ARMHY has.. Hmmmmm <gg>