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To: TigerPaw who wrote (3667)	8/19/2000 8:28:57 PM
From: William	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10714

And it was with light bulbs in mind that I hedged my statement that GE might make a billion units of something. Again, trying to resolve the huge magnitude of a trillion, if 1000 LEDs per light bulb and a billion bulbs it's a maybe. But then what is the cost. It can't be a penny a LED, for at $10 you will not sell a billion bulbs. You might get 2 or 3 bucks a bulb, but not 10. Then again, they are not going to burn out after 1000 hours, so the replacement market is cut by 95% Does anyone know what Cree gets for a LED these days? And what the price might do on a 4000 fold increase in production? Just got from closet a 4 pack of GE 60 watt Soft White. Average life - 1000 hours, light output 840 lumens, cost $2.99 for 4 or 75 cents per bulb. If a LED was good for 21 lumens you would need 40 for the light of a current 60 watt bulb, or under 2 cents per LED retail. I just don't know the cost per LED or Lumen per LED. It's a maybe but still going to take one heck of a lot of product to eat a trillion or 15 trillion baby Crees. William