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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (255)	8/19/2000 12:25:27 PM
From: Joseph Silent	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Anyone? Interest rates ... Tuesday or Wednesday? Thanks.

To: Joseph Silent who wrote (255)	8/19/2000 1:53:26 PM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Respond to of 100058

joseph - VIX: complacency relies in the belief that he VIX could be used as a trading method: sell at 20, buy at 30. If you check the CBOE VIX statistics (although the VIX is recent, 1993, CBOE has back-checked it's values till 1986 cboe.com it show an average value for the VIX of 20.37. That number should be considered as normal. Two analysts already have discussed the wrong signals of the 20-30 trading method: - Bernie Schaeffer has noted the decline in daily volume of OEX options. To the contrary, options on the Nasdaq 100 Trust equity (QQQ) has attracted a lot of traders: time to check QIX 9QQQ's VIX) ? schaeffersresearch.com (Jul 07, 00) - Rex Takasugi piece of Apr 21, 2000 stockcharts.com “VIX Trading Model Update: The sharp increase in volatility out of normal parameters has caused my VIX Trading Model to be thrown off, as the latest buy signal appears to be either wrong or early… During the autumn of 1998, a similar situation also occurred. When this happens I step up to the next time frame, which would be a weekly chart… The weekly VIX is getting as close to the Buy Line as we've seen since that 1998 low. The VIX lows of 1999 have been exceeded, which would suggest that a major low is imminent, although we're not quite there yet. However, it is possible that we could see a reversal without reaching the Buy Line, as in 1999. That is my current expectation.” I personally start to get angry each time I hear of the 20-30 levels: those who write that seem to never have checked their assumptions, hence I will never care to even read market analysis of those authors again: if they are wrong with the VIX, coz they have a bad approach, why would their others analyzes have a better approach? Anyway, as markets keep changing, shouldn't we better focus on the current Nasdaq surrogate, the QQQ ? optionsanalysis.com