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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Griffin who wrote (30288)	8/19/2000 2:54:24 PM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 769667

Gore's Poll Gain Less Than Expected; Bush Still Leads UPI Saturday, Aug. 19, 2000 LOS ANGELES – Vice President Al Gore's gain in the polls after the Democratic National Convention was less than expected. The Voter.com/Battleground survey released Friday showed that the Bush lead over Gore shrank from 10 percentage points Thursday morning to 5 points after Gore's acceptance speech, which received positive reviews from the mainstream media. There were telling numbers, however, that showed that Gore's percentage of the vote increased only 2 percentage points, from 40 percent to 42 percent, and that the number of undecided voters remained a constant 11 percent. "To say it was a good convention depends on your perspective," said pollster Ed Goaes of The Tarrance Group, one of two polling firms that conducted the survey. "I'm sure these numbers look pretty good compared to being down 10 points, but the bottom line is that the average bounce for a Democratic convention is 10 points, and we're looking at two points." The poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percent, generally reflects other post-convention polls that show Gore gaining ground on Bush. But an NBC poll indicated a slight Gore lead that fell within the poll's margin of error but still put Gore at 46 percent to Bush's 43 percent. In a portion of the survey that gave the 1,500 respondents the chance to select any presidential candidate, Bush had 45 percent Friday, down 5 percent from Thursday. Gore had 40 percent. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader held fairly steady at 3 percent, with Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan at 1 percent, and 10 percent of the voters still undecided. Goaes said that poll numbers tend to be more volatile immediately after a convention and that voter enthusiasm for a candidate can wane as the afterglow fades. The convention polls, he said, indicate that Bush still enjoyed better support than Gore from "definite" voters who planned to stick with their candidates throughout the campaign. "Now the lead in the 'definite' vote for Bush is nine points, compared to the five points overall," he said. "That tells you that this is a very soft movement for Al Gore." Gore seemed to benefit from the selection of Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., by picking up significant support in the Northeast, where he held an 18-point lead over Bush. The West was a dead heat at 46 percent to 46 percent. Bush enjoyed an advantage of 52 percent to 37 in the Midwest, where Gore and Lieberman were campaigning the morning after the Los Angeles convention. "Clearly, those are the target voters," said pollster Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell and Perry. "Also, among white Catholics, the vote is still 53 percent to 36 percent for Bush, reinforcing the nature of the Midwest as a target region." Among minority groups, Gore has the support of 77 percent of blacks, while Hispanics give Gore 60 percent and Bush 33 percent. While no single issue dominates the campaign, education, a favorite Bush theme, is considered a top priority by 17 percent of the voters, followed by Social Security and then health care, both at 12 percent. Five percent of voters are primarily concerned with reducing taxes. The environment is a top concern of only 3 percent. Foreign affairs are the top priority for 1 percent.