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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (320)	8/20/2000 6:42:39 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

DrBob - mixed bag, the least you can say. The only one sure thing is that the market action will surprise us all. My middle to long-term indicators are turning bullish, though I expect a bunch of different length economic cycles to converge and bottom by 2001-2004. Short to middle term, I already posted this: danger period should be Dec this year. Still, the market could rally, and these bottoms could evenly be higher than the current levels. And the VIX still worries me. Not because of the chart. But because all and every analyst (with only a handfull of exceptions), newsletter or wire repeat the same warning. My best guess, for the short term, is that all the traders make a fixation on the magic "20" number. This could lead to indecision (=low volumes and prices) and a sell the news on the FOMC annoucement, especially if the comments remain cautionary ("In doubt, get out"). Not for long, until Labor Day. When the traders will return from vacation, also when one can expect M&A activity to increase. If my memory is correct, the accounting rules for the pooling of interest will be will be suppressed by year end, meaning hat an acquiring company will have to amortize the costs of acquisitions over several years. Can a CPA here confirm this ? So, entering the week very cautiously, invested in large cap low volatility stocks. Waiting for the last sessions before Labor Day to roll over for some Momo's. That VIX issue could have a bearish effect on money flow. The indicator triggering trade actions as mostly the Fibs do. This is a market of stocks, not a stock market. FWIW, JMHO lvlamb