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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (30174)	8/20/2000 8:00:31 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I think this tornado is early and there are intersecting forces that may influence the game. We have GbE and Infiniband, about to duke it out with FC. We have DFAS/VI, which will even the playing field for all three. And we have EMC who really wants FC to win. DFAS/VI could be a tremendous hit below the belt for EMC. EMC's I/O bus in front of FC is proprietary, I am told. So their getting to DFAS/VI could be very difficult and take much time. BRCD's status in the next 2-3 years will depend not so much on their IPR, BTE, etc, but on their ability to adapt to the disruptive innovations that are clearly visible over the horizon (Infiniband, GbE, DAFS/VI). Their relationship with CSCO is key. CSCO is playing the field and investing in at least FC and GbE, and is part of the DAFS/VI collaboration. The timing and outcome of all this is not clear. I would not be surprised to see Tornadus Interruptus in late 2001. I am holding this one very lightly, indeed, but if BRCD's management have read Christensen's book they may be able to win no matter what. ds@gettingnauseousaboutscootingdogs.erp

To: jhg_in_kc who wrote (30174)	8/20/2000 8:54:42 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Re: Brocade.... Here's Paul Johnson's comments in the recent interview: ===== Internetstocks.com: You also track storage-area network companies like Brocade Communications (BRCD $190). Is this a parallel phenomenon to the broadband buildout? You’re expecting excellent profit growth for this company going forward. Johnson: We see it as bringing the Next Generation Network architecture to storage. Fibre channel is the key enabling technology, bringing broadband scalable infrastructure to the task. There’s a bit of a rallying around other types of technology to usurp this opportunity but we think that when these competing technologies are established, it’s highly likely that fibre channel will be a de facto standard. Brocade’s position in the systems side is very impressive, something like 80% share. In host adapters, the players are Emulex (EMLX $47-9/16), QLogic (QLGC $71-3/8) and JNI (JNIC $41-3/4). These go into the servers that connect to the SAN. We expect market share to remain relatively stable so we think investors should stick to a balanced portfolio among the three. ===== BB