To: George Gilder who wrote (4729 ) 9/20/2000 2:52:04 PM From: k_maxwell Respond to of 5853 GG - Looks like the Chief Investment Strategist at Prudential Securities needs to read "Telecosm" I was reading along, interested that Gary Smith's present favorite stock is VTSS, and that he is bullish on QCOM, when I came across the following excerpt: <<<<<But one tech sector Prudential doesn't like for the rest of the year is networking stocks. There's a huge market for more communications bandwidth and telecom services, Smith says. The trouble is network capacity is growing just as fast, if not faster than demand. It means that networking stocks that are off 50 percent or more from their year highs could stay in the doldrums. A months-long networking slump already has struck big names, including Lucent Technologies (LU: news, msgs). Share of the widely held equipment maker are down nearly 50 percent since mid-July. Competitor Nortel Networks (NT: news, msgs), meanwhile is down about 20 percent in roughly the same period. "Investors are starting to say, ‘Hey, wait a minute: We have all this capacity to transmit information and so forth, but may be at some point we have too much,'" Smith said.>>>>> I'd sure like to see some numbers (and the source of those numbers) to back up the statement that "network capacity is growing just as fast, or faster than, demand." Isn't internet traffic doubling roughly every 100 days? Won't it have grown a thousandfold 5 years hence, and a million fold by 2010? Supply creates its own demand, and new applications we haven't even dreamed of yet are going to fill up the available bandwidth as it's rolled out. I am glad that the Chief Investment Strategist at Prudential doesn't seem to understand this. I feel even more confident than ever that I will continue to beat the market -- not by "listening to the technology" (I am no physicist, optical engineer or networking specialist, by any stretch), but by listening to George! Here's the whole article: cbs.marketwatch.com