8/28/00, "TA for Boneheads" update: Please see my previous "Bonehead" posts for all the usual caveats, waivers, warnings, etc. All of this is my work and my opinion only. It may be of little or no value to anyone else! I am not an expert or market guru of any kind; just a "Bonehead" looking for low-risk ways to make money position-trading (NOT daytrading) tech stocks from the long side. Price data is from market close, Friday 8/25/00. I may have positions in some or all of the securities listed here. This is posted for the benefit and perusal of all; I receive no direct financial benefit of any kind. Therefore, comments, questions and constructive criticisms are always welcome and greatly appreciated!
Notes: a * before symbol indicates a "new buy" within the past week (or likely to be a new buy on Mon or Tues) and "up" or "down" denotes what I believe is the short term trend. OS indicates "oversold" but that is a condition which can continue for quite some time (just like OB-"overbought"). All trends can change fairly quickly so the numbers following are perhaps more valuable. Support points (SP) below the current price and resistance/breakout points (RBOP) above the current price are the result of my attempts to analyze daily charts over a one-year time period and may include a variety of chart patterns (trendlines, triangles, flags, etc) as well as moving averages, momentum indicators, and stochastics (I generally get better and more reliable results with fewer variables!). Since markets are continuously dynamic, a support point (SP) can become a new resistance/breakout point (RBOP) once it has been breached. Similarly, RBOPs can become support points once they are taken out on upmoves. Many times I have used SPs and RBOPs as effective entry and exit points for actual buy/sell stops. Sometimes I use them as guidelines or alerts. I typically allow anywhere from 2-15% as a stop loss on new entries depending upon the individual security and how close to SPs or RBOPs my purchase is made.
New Notes: On Thursday, I posted results from previous "Bonehead" picks...see post #32881 for "report card!"
New New Notes: The last week of summer, new decimal system, tech jitters from EMLX....caution across the board!
That said, here's this weeks's "Bonehead" update.......
A-58.50, sideways, near OB, SP 56, 60, 43, 39 RBOP 62, 70, 81
*AKAM-70.06, up, SP 60, 55, RBOP 81, 90, 101, 110, 131
ACCD-8.81, up, SP 8.5, 7.75, 7.25 RBOP 10, 11.5, 13.24
ADAP-27.56, up, trendline supp 27.50, SP 22, 18 RBOP 35, 38, 41, 51
ADIC-13.56, sw, SP 12, 10, RBOP 17, 20
AETH-142.44, up, SP 135, 130, 120, 110 RBOP 160, 185, 218
ADSX-3.84, up, SP 3.4, 3, 2 RBOP 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 8.25
ADPT-22.44, up, trendline supp 22, SP 21, 18, 16 RBOP 26, 35
ANAD-32.56, up, trendline supp 29, SP 27, 25, 22 RBOP 33, 37, 43, 50
AOL-60, up, near OB, trendline supp 58.50, SP 56, 51 RBOP 63, 70, 75
*ARTT-9.5, sw, OS, SP 9, 8 RBOP 13, 18
ATML-37.94, up, near OB, trendline supp 37, SP 35, 33, 28, 25 RBOP 43, 50, 63
*BKHM-56.88, up, OS, SP 55, 50 RBOP 61, 66, 74, 85
BOUT-37.63, up, SP 33, 30, 28 RBOP 40, 51
BRCD-211.88, sw, OB, SP 210, 200, 190, 170, 160 RBOP close over 221
BRCM-268.13, up, OB, trendline supp 265, SP 258, 240, 230, 210 RBOP 276
CICI-3.41, sw, channel from 3-4, SP 3, 2.88 RBOP 4, close above 5
*CNQR-3.63, sw, OS, SP 3.44 RBOP 5, 7.5, 10
CMGI-40.75, up, trendline supp 38, SP 36 RBOP 51, 65, 75
CNXT-37.25, sw, OB, SP 37, 35, 32, 30 RBOP 41, 50, 60
CLRN-50, up, SP 45, 30 RBOP 55, 75, 100
CS-36.75, up, OB, SP 35, 30, 27, 25 RBOP 38, 47, 54
CTXS-22.94, up, OB, trendline supp 22, SP 19, 14.5 RBOP 26, 40
COVD-15.06, up, SP 15, 13.5 RBOP 18, 21, 24, 30
COMS-17.06, up, trendline supp 17, SP 15, 12 RBOP 20
CSCO-65.5, sw, channel 60-70, SP 60, 55, 50 RBOP 71, 76, 83
CRUS-28, down, OB, SP 26, 24, 20 RBOP 30
BLDP-101, up, SP 95, 90, 80 RBOP 111, 131, 150
CLIC-9.56, up trendline supp 9.5, SP 8, RBOP 19
CIEN-197.94, up, OB, SP 190, 180, 160, 140, 130 RBOP 202
DCGN-26.75, sw, wedge formation, SP 25, 24 RBOP 32
DCLK-41.81, up, SP 35, 30 RBOP 61, 82
DITC-53.13, down, SP 51, 45 RBOP 60, 70, 90
DSLN-7.03, sw, SP 6, 4.5, 3 RBOP 12
DISH-45.13, up, near OB, trendline supp 45, SP 40, 37, 35, 31 RBOP 46, 51, 65
ELNK-9.88, sw, OS, SP 9.5 RBOP 11, 18, 23, 31
ELON-37, up, SP 35, 32, 30, 28 RBOP 42, 45, 50, 58
EGAN-8.81, sw, SP 8, 7 RBOP 11, 18, 23, 31
ENGA-11.19, up SP 10, 8.25, 7.5 RBOP 15, 17, 21, 30
ENE-84.88, down, OB, SP 84, 80, 77, 72, 65 RBOP 92
EXDS-65.19, up, OB, trendline supp 64, SP 60, 55, 50, 45 RBOP 72, 88
EMLX-105.75, up, OB, SP 99, 85, 70 RBOP Close above 115
FBCE-7.63, sw, SP 7.5, 7, 6 RBOP 9, 10, 11
FNSR-44, up, OB, SP 37, 35, 33, 30, 27 RBOP 54, 60
FFIV-49.13, up, trendline supp 48, SP 45, 40, 30 RBOP 59, 79, 100
EWEB-3.38, up, SP 3, 2.5, 2 RBOP 4.25, 6.25
GBLX-31.38, sw, OB, SP 30, 27, 24 RBOP 35, 39, 46, 56
GLC-18.88, up, SP 18, 17.5 RBOP 21, 23.5, 27.5, 31
GLW-301.50, up, OB, SP 295, 280, 270, 240 RBOP 307
GNSL-15.56-up, SP 14, 13 RBOP 19, 24, 31
HATH-6.63, down, SP 6, 5, 5.5 RBOP 10, 13, 16, 20
HLIT-28.88, up, SP 28, 25, 22 RBOP 37, 45, 60
HLTH-12.94, sw, SP 11, RBOP 15, 19, 22, 27
*INAP 26.38, sw, OS, SP 25, RBOP 30, 38, 56, 75
*IMAN-9.81, up, trendline supp 9, SP 8, 7 RBOP 12, 14, 20, 28
ICGE-34.25, up, SP 32, 29, 25 RBOP 39, 47, 60
IFCI-20.06, up, SP 19, 17, 13 RBOP 27, 30, 38
IFMX-5.25, up, trendline supp 5, SP 4.25, 4 RBOP 6, 7, 10
IMNX-47.63, up, SP 44, 40, 35, 30, 25 RBOP 47, 56, 67
INPH-18.06, up trendline supp 17.5, SP 16, 13 RBOP 20, 28, 35
INSP- 28.56, up, SP 27, 20 RBOP 36, 42, 53, 62
IONN-2.38, sw, SP 2 RBOP 4.5, 7, 11
ISLD-29.19, up, SP 27, 25, 18 RBOP 33, 40, 50, 60
IPIX-8.06, sw, OS, SP 7.5 RBOP 11,21
*INKT-123.94, up, SP 110, 100, 90 RBOP 141, 160, 170
IATV-15.5, up, SP 13, 11 RBOP 16, 20
IBM-129, up, SP 125, 119, 114, 110 RBOP 138
JDSU-125.31, up, near OB, trendline supp 122, SP 120, 115, 108, 95 RBOP 130, 141, 151
JNIC-62.56-sw, near OB, SP 62, 58, 52, 45, 40 RBOP 70, 80, 90, 110
KEI-67.44, up, near OB, SP 62, 54, 45 RBOP 91, 110
KOPN-35.38, up, near OB, trendline supp 32, SP 30, 25, 22 RBOP 40, 47, 51
LCOS-65.81, up, SP 61, 56, 52, 45 RBOP 71, 77, 94
LEXG-29.31, up, trendline supp 29, SP 27, 25, 22, 17 RBOP 31, 36, 41, 50
LPTH-44.31, up, SP 42, 38, 35, 29 RBOP 48, 51, 60, 70
LBRT-18.63, up, SP 17, RBOP 21, 25, 31, 41, 50, 61
LQID-6.44, sw, SP 6 RBOP 8, 10, 15
LRCX-29.81, up, near OB, SP 28, 26, 23, 19 RBOP 35, 40, 45
*LU-41, up, OS, possible double-bottom, SP 40 RBOP 46, 50, 55, 60, 67, 72
KLAC-59.31, up, near OB, SP 58, 55, 50, 45, 40 RBOP 66, 77, 98
*MCLL-4.44, up, OS, SP 4, 3, 2 RBOP 5, 7, 9
MDT-51.69, up, SP 49, 48, 46 RBOP 58
METHA-55, up, near OB, SP 52, 50, 47, 43, 38 RBOP 56, 60, 65
*MKTY-11.75, sw, SP 11, 10, 8 RBOP 14, 17, 25
MSFT-70.63, sw, SP 70, 67, 64, 61 RBOP 76, 83, 90
*MMPT-11.38, down, trendline supp 11, SP 10 RBOP 16, 19, 23, 25, 35
MOT-36, up, trendline supp 35, SP 33, 29 RBOP 38, 40, 45, 52, 56, 63
*MFNX-36.69, up, SP 33, 30, 25 RBOP 38, 45, 53
NBCI-8.75, sw, OS, SP 8 RBOP 10, 13, 17, 20
NETP-13, up, SP 10 RBOP 15, 20, 25, 31
NTOP-27, down, SP 25, RBOP 33, 41, 51, 65
NVDA-75, up, OB, trendline wupp 74, SP 70, 63, 52 RBOP 81, 90
NEON-32.56, up, SP 29, 25, 22 RBOP 47
*NTT-57.44, up, SP 55 RBOP 63, 75, 81, 89, 94
NVLS-58.06, up, OB, SP 56, 54, 45 RBOP 61, 70
NOK-41.63, up, SP 41, 39, 37, 34, 28 RBOP 46, 51, 57
NT-82.38, sw, OB, SP 80, 75, 70, 67, 65, 60 RBOP 85
NXTL-51.13, down, SP 46, 37 RBOP 61, 65, 74, 83
*NUAN-123.13, down, OS, SP 120, 115 RBOP 162, 182
NTRO-80, up, near OB, SP 70, 60, 54, 49 RBOP 91, 102
NOVL-11.06, up SP 9, 8 RBOP 13, 18, 26
OMKT-7.55, up, SP 6.5, 6 RBOP 8, 10, 12, 15, 20
ORCH-40-up, SP 35, 27 RBOP 43, 50, 61
ONIS-90, down, SP 90, 85, 80, 75 RBOP 105, 116, 125
PALM-39.75, up, SP 38, 33, 29 RBOP 41, 48, 51, 60, 72
PBSC-21.31, sw, OS, SP 20, 16-18, RBOP 23, 28
OPUS-3.97, up, SP 3.75, 3, 2.5 RBOP 5.5, 9
*PCLE-9.97, up, SP 8, 7 RBOP 11, 17, 27, 31, 37
*PCNTF-13, sw, OS, SP 12 RBOP 17, 21, 26, 36
PLUG-48.75, up, SP 45, 40, 36 RBOP 71, 90
PSFT-27.75, up, SP 45, 40, 36 RBOP 71, 90
PSIX-17.38, sw, SP 16, 15 RBOP 23, 30, 35
PUMA-20.81, up, SP 20, 17, 14 RBOP 24, 30, 40, 51
Q-50.31, up, SP 46, 43, 40 RBOP 51, 58, 66
QLGC-103.88, up, near OB, SP 95, 82, 68 RBOP 112, 122
*QCOM-58.88, up, OS, SP 55, 50 RBOP 61, 71, 74, 85
RBAK-139.06, DOWN, SP 133, 110-120 RBOP 152, 161, 181
*RFMD-82.56, up, SP 75, 67 RBOP 101, 111, 121, 141
RSAS-61.38, sw, SP 59, 55, 50 RBOP 70, 81, 93
*RTHM-8.84, sw, OS, SP 8.5 RBOP 13, 18, 21, 25
SCMR-150.81, down, SP150, 135, 120 RBOP 170, 181, 200
*SCON-21.19, sw, SP 19, 13 RBOP 26, 30, 41, 55
SVNX-35.13, UP, SP 32, 29 RBOP 37, 42, 51, 61
*SPWX-56.25, up, OS, SP 50, 45 RBOP 60, 75, 90, 110
SDLI-402.13, UP, OB, SP 400, 370, 350, 330, 310 RBOP 425, 460
TFSM-16.56, up, SP 15, 13, 11 RBOP 21, 25, 31
TGNT-15.19, up, SP 14, 13 RBOP 18, 22, 28, 31, 41, 57
*THTH-2.31, sw, OS, SP 2.25 RBOP 2.63, 3.38, 4
UIS-10.94, down, SP 9 RBOP 13, 16, 25, 28, 36
*SBAS-6.88, up, SP 6, 4 RBOP 8, 12
*VNTR-12.38, up, OS, SP 10.5 RBOP 15, 18, 27, 33, 37
VTSS-89.25, up, near OB, SP 84, 77, 70, 65, 58 RBOP 111
*RAZF-13.69, down, spec buy, OS, SP 11 RBOP 18, 25, 31
*WCOM-36.06, up, SP 34, 32.5 RBOP 41, 43, 46, 50
WFII-70, up, SP 65, 59, 54 RBOP 82, 95
WRLS-17.5, up, SP 14, 11, 8 RBOP 18, 21, 26
WIND-39.69, up, SP 36, 33 RBOP 45, 55, 66
XYBR-7, down, SP 6, RBOP 8.5, 12, 16, 25, 30
*XLNK-16.69-up, SP 15, 12, 8 RBOP 20, 27, 45
I'm trying to add in a few more each week and would greatly appreciate suggestions (although each weekly update now consumes about 12-14 hours!). During the week I also try to "flag" certain stocks as they move up along with some of my selected buys. I don't generally post as many of the sells, especially if they are are the result of sell stops using the posted numbers.
Some additional thoughts:
Prioritizing buys is difficult especially when presented with multiple opportunities for a limited budget. Which is the "better" strategy: to funnel as much money as possible into a few beaten down or low-priced stocks that appear oversold, or to spread smaller share purchases among those AND larger/stronger stocks? For me, the latter makes more sense but that is a question traders of all types answer every day. Similarly, buys and sells work "best" for me when done as scaleable positions (or partial positions) as Rande has suggested with his "hybrid trading method."
Conservative financial radio talk-show host Bob Brinker routinely recommends that no single stock purchase should make up more than 4-5% of a person's portfolio and that if that stock should appreciate to a level of 10%, profits should be taken to reduce that holding back down to 5%. I'm not quite that conservative but Mr. Brinker's strategy makes a good deal of sense and serves as a useful guideline. Naturally, I'd emphasize stronger stocks (such as IBM, for example) over riskier ones in a long term account but might have equal (or higher) dollar amounts of aggressive newer issues in a short term trading account.
Whichever way the general market goes this week there will always be winners and losers. I hope the above information helps emphasize gains and limit losses!
Best Regards,
Mark Konrad |
