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Strategies & Market Trends : The Amateur Traders Corner -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (316)	8/21/2000 6:34:33 PM
From: Rutgers	Respond to of 19633

NDVA I was expecting them to beat the consensus number (.26) - my take on this one was that it has made a pretty big move to the upside from $52/sh only a couple of weeks ago. So, I can appreciate why there would be a sell-off from $80 level. Their $.28 slightly beat the estimate, but apparently missed the $.31 "whisper number." The bigger problem for NVDA is where do they go from here. First, they are in the 3D grahpics biz. They are not a pure play SEMI despite what some longs may want/try to portray them to be. 3D graphics is more of a commodity business. Second, it appears that their direct competition, ATI and TDFX (not to mention INTC who has been going after the low-end biz) are finally getting their acts together. If they do, NVDA's dominant mkt share will likely erode - taking their ridiculous multiple down with it. Having said all that, I think this report is pretty good - in isolation - and the mkt may or may not be kind tomorrow. Certainly, nice growth - but the stock price is already discounting this growth, which I don't think is realistically sustainable anyway. So, I will take another look tomorrow to see what the mkt really thinks about this report and then decide what action to take.