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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: manfmnantucket who wrote (690)	8/21/2000 7:32:52 PM
From: manfmnantucket	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

The market? Oh, that. I just got back from summer vaca, and have observed that that NAS has essentially gone sideways on light volume for most of the summer, as expected. I think that the techs have begun rallying off their summer lows already, just as they did last year in August. However, I think the damage done this April was severe enough to inhibit the kind of monster rally we had last fall. Big gains in the recovery have been limited to a small subset of stocks, and the more speculative internet stocks have been left to limp along. My guess is that the stocks that have now recovered to near their year highs will have a hard time blasting much higher - and with the wave of dotcom bankruptcies, traders will be staying away from anything but the leaders. So the majority of internet stocks may continue to limp or head down, while a minority of hot tech stocks will move still higher, but at a slower pace. There may be a speculative rally in a new sector such as biotechs or a resurgence of B2B or wireless mania, but even that should be moderate. I continue to think I've stumbled onto something very significant and useful with the BSR. I wish someone besides me would study it systematically. I'm still watching it but have observed it call short-term bottoms very well now twice. It just doesn't stay below .28 or above .52 for very long. Today's range was from .43 to .455, consistent with sustained uptrend. I kind of expect the BSR to peak out in the next week, after the FOMC meeting - we could have a relief rally that pushes the BSR above .52 briefly, perhaps taking NAS above 4K again. This would be a setup, if the BSR continues to oscillate, for a short downward leg to be triggered by something, perhaps continued stories about dotcom failures - then we have earnings season again in late Sept to give stocks a reason to rise... just my ramblin thoughts. MfN

To: manfmnantucket who wrote (690)	8/21/2000 7:34:21 PM
From: FLACK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

OT MfN "Q: what is the deal with SI - will we have to renew the memberships after a year and pay, or are they lifetime memberships???" Scheesh, MfN. Is money all you think about? :-) Remeber our old buddy, YHOO? I'm beginning to think that it will likely become a good short soon. Rumors/whispers flying between my trader friends... just rumors so far. But I can't stop listening because these guys are quite right, quite often.