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To: jim_p who wrote (71318)	8/21/2000 9:55:05 PM
From: hdrjr	Respond to of 95453

jim p, Thanks for the latest update of the spreadsheet! What time frame do you have on holding HGT? The following is from a message on yahoo. "Today's distribution report revealed a couple of things than I will have to consider as I update my future model of this puppy. First of all, production came in very close to my expectations. To me, this is a very good signal that production is stabilizing. Development costs and production expenses were in line with historical averages, this is also very encouraging. Of concern was the level of overhead. This has been very stable at approximately $590/m. The jump to $756 is concerning if it is the new run rate. Can anyone shed any light on the increase or whether it is permanent? The other area where my model missed was gas price. Over the past several months, on average we've been getting approx. 10 cents less than the PEPL index. This month we got 46 cents less than the index. Obviously, the gas price one uses is a major driver in cash flow. Does anyone have any insight why HGT would have experienced wider basis to PEPL during June than in previous months? Is this a seasonal price effect that I should be modelling looking forward? I've adjusted my price basis looking forward from 10 to 15 cents off PEPL and arrive at the following forecast of distributions for the next 12 periods (production months July 00 thru June 01): 18.3, 15.7, 19.4, 20.1, 19.4, 20.5, 20.1, 16.2, 17.1, 14.9, 14.9, 14.0. Next twelve months total = $2.10/share." I have no idea what type of model this poster is using, however I think it is evident that distributions will continue to increase as long as the field continues to produce at the current levels and given the current prices. What is wonderful about HGT is that they averaged $3.95 in June. Therefore the next several months will obvouisly earn more. I placed my buy order this afternoon, now I am just concerned with the hold timeframe. Presently looking at 12 months, what are your goals with this one? I don't necessarily mean unit price increase, for this one I will be happy with the distributions. Best investing, hdr