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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (50655)	8/21/2000 10:09:43 PM
From: vc21	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Why are we back at 84 in afterhours? Anyone?

To: Bilow who wrote (50655)	8/22/2000 12:43:40 AM
From: NightOwl	Respond to of 93625

Zeev, Gene, Carl, Ha! Something is always "up" with this company! You show me a Quarter since it went public that there was NO "major" event in its life story and I'll eat it. :8) All I can see on this horizon is a ton of cash that wants to be holding RMBS when the IDF opens its doors. RMBS is linked to INTC's tonsils and every time INTC opens its mouth RMBS moves. ...It doesn't have to say anything to have this effect. If INTC shows an OC-192 server with a couple of RIMMS hooked onto the board THAT will be the big news of the IDF. If its loaded with SDRAM it will still be the BIG news on this thread. If they put a padlock on the box and refuse to say what's inside, then that will be the news of the day. Every time Dr. Yu shows his face he's going to have 4 scribes asking him about DRDRAM. What else could Gelsinger possibly have to talk about? INTC seems to be putting an 11th hour "communications" spin on this IDF, but they can't ignore Itanium. Whichever direction they move, RMBS will be there staring them in the face. Since RMBS "claims" to have the complete memory solution for all DRAM applications there is no way that INTC can escape the issue of its application with INTC technology. I can only see two possible items of "real" news that could support a major run from current levels: 1) A major SDRAM/DDR license deal. But the only way I can see them picking off one of the big four Fabs in so short a time after the Infineon suit is by RMBS caving on the level of their royalty/fee structure. 2) An announcement that INTC itself is taking a SDRAM/DDR license from RMBS at least for controllers to be used with Itanium and/or Timna. But I just can't see somebody who already has the Tiger by the tail deciding to "resolve his problem" by putting on a striped suit and saying "Meowwww"! Seriously I have tried to think of other "news" events. I considered the possibility of a new suit. Surely Tate's lawyers must be willing, but he seems to have taken a recent interest in the "legal expense" factor. There's always the "major" acquisition possibility. Is Pixelfusion for sale yet? Then too there's the tried and trued "100 systems using DRDRAM" approach. Say they issue a PR listing 150 DRDRAM systems! Yawwwwn! Excuse me, but after a day in which Samsung has announced an entire new DRDRAM capable Fab line and LANL decides to buy a $150,000,000 Supercalculator jam packed full of DRDRAM chips, I'd say a $5 pop up is about right at these levels. Heck a year ago it would have moved $15 minimum with more to follow the next day on that kind of news. No RMBS has at long last parlayed itself into the feature role of Spielbergs future blockbuster: The Bus That Cried Wolf. It can no longer make hay on fluffy little PR about skewed performance numbers and DRDRAM applications some niche OEM is begging to have supplied. It has to have real gut bustin', Sunday go to meetin' "NEWS". Nobody cares about DRDRAM any more. At this market cap they either have cash from the entire DRAM market or they don't. Lowered expectations just won't do. I agree that RMBS needs something Big to be "Up" somewhere along the way before the end of this year. But this bird brain can't see anything of substance being likely in the period of the next week. 0\|0

To: Bilow who wrote (50655)	8/22/2000 8:58:46 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Carl, re: IDF and Memory I think the only official news from IDF on P4 and memory will concern only RDRAM. (For PC's). Regarding Intel's ability to change direction based on market needs, I think they already have alternate platforms that will be ready to go if that's what it takes to make P4 successful. Discussing them at IDF would not be wise, especially if their desire is that the market accept P4 with RDRAM. It's too early to make any decisions on a potential change in direction. I expect P4 with RDRAM will sell out during the launch phase and for at least the next few quarters thereafter. Initial ramps will be consumed by early adopters and high end users. Typically price is not a major issue for these buyers. The migration of P4 into lower priced PC's will partly be a function of RDRAM prices and availability. This is probably the biggest unknown in the product ramp for Intel. If there remains a large price disparity between RIMM's and DIMM's, I think Intel will have alternate platforms ready. Availability could be a larger issue. With SDRAM prices increasing the chip makers may be hesitant to shift production to RDRAM. (BTW, I still believe that SDRAM will have ~80% share of the PC market next year). As for the Intel/Rambus Agreement, I don't think there is anything that prevents Intel from using other devices beyond penalties for doing so. The new Agreement is secret, so this is only speculation. But I think Intel will use any memory required to make P4 successful, regardless of penalties. There's just too much at stake. Announcements that confuse the market can only be to the detriment of the roll-out. So I don't expect any. Won't be long before we know. But, JMHO's