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Gold/Mining/Energy : Panaco Corp (PANA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bearcatbob who wrote (98)8/23/2000 6:18:30 AM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Bob,

IMO Carl just wanted to add to his PANA position and knew he couldn't buy that many shares on the open market for such a cheap price as $1.73.

I believe there's a good chance he will now buy some shares on the open market to get up to just under the 30% ownership mark. That is the threshold trigger for the Change in Control provisions for PANA's bank line of credit.

Bottom line is that I now believe Carl doesn't want to keep the company off the Amex (otherwise he wouldn't have bought the New Valley shares now). I believe also that he wants to still own more of this company, at as cheap a price as he can get them for, and thus is not bent on getting the stock price up as soon as possible.

He knows that the last chance to get any meaningful amount of stock in the open market without moving up the stock price with his buys is right now, before the East Breaks drilling report comes out. He's in here for the long haul and if the stock price is still depressed when his 3 year waiting period is up, he will make an offer to buy the whole company.

Should be interesting to see where oil prices go today. Remember, about a third of PANA's production is oil.



To: Bearcatbob who wrote (98)11/9/2000 10:48:02 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Respond to of 115
 
Time for my quarterly production forecast.

Here's the latest actual and prediction production figures (mmcfe):

1999A 2000 2001

1Q 4,972 4,844A 6,400
2Q 4,634 5,235A
3Q 3,972 5,500E
4Q 4,569 5,800E

Totals 18,147 21,379 ????

For 3Q, "only" a 5% increase over the prior quarter but the comparisons to the same quarter for the prior year are looking damn good. Maybe we will be pleasantly surprised by the Price Lake wells ramping up production as rumored. The big ramp up in production will be 1Q '01, primarily due to the East Breaks wells.

On an annual basis, it looks like they will produce about 18% more in this yr. vs. last year. Not too shabby considering that they only got to do about half of their planned drilling program.

As stated previously I still think their cash flow per share will start with a "5".



To: Bearcatbob who wrote (98)11/9/2000 10:49:22 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 115
 
Time for my quarterly production forecast.

Here's the latest actual and predicted production figures (mmcfe):

1999A 2000E 2001E

1Q 4,972 4,844A 6,400E
2Q 4,634 5,235A
3Q 3,972 5,500E
4Q 4,569 5,800E

Totals 18,147 21,379 ????

For 3Q, "only" a 5% increase over the prior quarter but the comparisons to the same quarter for the prior year are looking damn good. Maybe we will be pleasantly surprised by the Price Lake wells ramping up production as rumored. The big ramp up in production will be 1Q '01, primarily due to the East Breaks wells.

On an annual basis, it looks like they will produce about 18% more in this yr. vs. last year. Not too shabby considering that they only got to do about half of their planned drilling program.

As stated previously I still think their cash flow per share will start with a "5".