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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (30263)	8/22/2000 1:19:57 AM
From: hueyone	Respond to of 54805

Thanks Kumar and Mike, Yes your answers do help. As usual, some healthy skepticism is in order! Regards, Huey

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (30263)	8/23/2000 9:33:18 AM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Mike, Re: QCOM - Decline overall wireless subscriber growth (Strategis Slides) << My take on research firms is that they are a particular industry or subsector what an analyst is a company. They make projections and have no problems changing them (rightfully so) when new information becomes available >> Speaking of research firms ... here is yet another report or actually a set of slides (pretty good) that accompany a conference call "Demystify Global Cellular and PCS Industry Growth Factors" from a research firm (Strategis Group) looking at overall wireless subscriber growth from 2000 2007: strategisgroup.com The text below is excerpted from a press release that accompanies the slides: "Cellular/PCS subscriber growth rates have been the double digits for years, however net subscriber additions look be declining worldwide according The Strategis Group's new study, World Cellular/PCS and 3G Markets. At the end of 1999, world cellular/PCS subscriber growth peaked at 54 percent, with emerging markets experiencing the highest growth rates. Growth levels are estimated drop significantly through 2007, especially mature markets." The Strategis numbers are VERY conservative compared other reports I have seen (Cahners In-Stat represents the high extreme)... downright low as a matter of fact, and I don't think the declension, year year will be as severe as they project. They show CDMA market share increasing from 14% end of 2000 16% end of 2007 which is positive. GSM flat, TDMA flat. CDMA remains the fastest growing end end technology long haul (despite the fact that TDMA led for the first 6 months of this year). They show "3G" (assume primarily CDMA) as having only 12% market share at end of 2007. This is about as low as I have seen (some studies upwards of 50%). Obviously, whether or not they are correct has an impact on QCOM. BTW: I believe that Strategis looks at 1xRTT as being a 3G technology (although that may not apply release 0). Most research firms have not bought off on that stretch. This adds some confusion analyzing numbers the forecasts from various research firms. Regardless, this is an interesting report. Wireless growth IS declining, and so is Qualcomm's. We will be below tornado growth level this year (+ 80%) and that will decline each succeeding year despite the fact that it appears that CDMA will continue to increase market share each year. I think we need be realistic about the fact that the 3G CDMA tornado is probably a relatively long way away, when assessing Qualcomm. - Eric -