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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (32605)	8/22/2000 10:33:20 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

MPPP pops each time they announce a settlement with a major record label. Today was Sony. The primary reason for the pop is because of the high number of shorts and momo players that don't understand the dynamics behind the story. . . plus a few more that are piling on the short-squeeze. Each individual settlement they sign with a major label, was part of the big record industry lawsuit settlement. . . . they lost that fight. . . . . meaning they are signing over a huge sum of money, plus more money each time their music is downloaded, plus further licensing fees. Prior to the lawsuit, their business model had them paying nobody for the music they sold. Now what do you think all these licenses will do to their bottom line? I highly doubt that MPPP will survive. . . therefore, upon their signing their final major deal. . . [uh, is that EMC / BMG? Can't recall offhand]. . .there will be no more reason for thinking they have a chance. Except for two odd factors. . . the non-DD'ing momo players. . . and the fans of MP3 format, that think that somehow the format will save the company. . . . but frankly, the more you dig into the fundamentals and business model of MPPP, the more confidence comes to the short-position. In the Winter of 1998-1999 I called K-TEL an "$80 penny stock." [who remembers?] It had no business model for making money. They sold re-makes of forgotten songs, for goodness sake. If the company had half a brain, they would have used their stock to buy any company that was money-making. . . I said it was destined for the OTC. Today K-Tel trades on the OTC for about a buck. For the six months ended 6/30/00, MPPP net revenues totaled $37.7 million, up from $2.6 million. Net loss totaled $195.2 million, up from $7.7 million. Results reflect increased online advertising revenues, offset by a $150 million copyright charge I believe MPPP is on the same course, yet I think it will get momentum to the teens before it begins its long decline. . . that would be a good place to grab some long-term short shares, IMO. Rande Is