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Gold/Mining/Energy : Ultra Petroleum (UPL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gerald Atwater who wrote (4704)	8/26/2000 12:50:33 PM
From: Gerald Atwater	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4851

(An idle question before I get to my post: Is the lack of posting here company specific or is it that current SI membership costs are too expensive to attract NEW posters?) Where will Canadian share price be in 6,18,24+ months? My GUESSES: 6 months -- $4.50-$5.00 due to the wells being drilled right now and the run-up in gas prices (with essentially no production increase according to the Q2 report). How much of that is built into the current price? 18 months -- $8.00-$10.00 as all the NEW Jonah wells will be completed and flowing into a sales line, plus there will be many more new wells on the northern anticline from Questar, Anschutz and perhaps even GNI (the Gemini acreage). So, big increases in production AND reserves. 24+ months -- ???? Begins to get real speculative again as this will depend on finding some sweet spots on the southern anticline as well as at Mesa/Stewart Point, etc. If another Jonah or two were found, why not $18 or more!? What is 1.5-2 Tcf of reserves worth? (McMurry's Jonah sale to Alberta Energy for 1.2 Tcf of reserves would have been worth about $16 to Ultra) (At the moment Ultra has 250 Bfc of reserves.) With 40-acre spacing, offsets could be drilled quickly so reserves would increase rapidly. The 3D seismic maps Ultra has eliminates much of the risk of the past -- dry holes, too little porosity, etc. Important factors -- availability of rigs and crews, higher number of wells (40-50) per year, continuing high NG prices, continued good management, no buyout. Any of you have GUESSES/thoughts you'd be willing to post? To fill the VOID, if nothing else. Gerry Atwater