To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (1789 ) 8/22/2000 1:58:36 PM From: John Pitera Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2850 so what prompted the EOG long purchase today?? EOG has no overhead resistance, as the prior high at 30 in 1996 has been taken out....... we have a new momentum high on the RSI, which is supportive of higher prices over the next several weeks even if we have a pullback. ---------- Monday August 21, 2000 Summary Prices opened higher and rocketed to new contract highs. September natural gas reached a new spot contract high of 4760 while December set a new natural gas contract high at 4850. September natural gas finally settled at 4747, up 311 ticks. The 12-month strip also managed a new high by advancing 211 ticks to settle at 4350. Prices were driven higher by a combination of factors. Tropical storm Debbie has obviously caught the attention of this market. While the probability of entering the Western Gulf of Mexico, where about 25% of the domestic natural gas production is located, appears low, traders did not want to be short. Debbie is expected to continue to strengthen and obtain hurricane status. While still far, the storm has increased fears of production curtailments. Also in the mix was the devastating explosion on the El Paso system over the weekend. Our sympathies are extended to the families of the victims. This portion of the system is connected to a great deal of production and reports indicate that up to 500 MMcf/d of gas may be curtailed. It is our belief that there is enough routing capabilities to reduce shut-ins to well below that number. Producers do all they can to sell gas in almost any market, and are surely moving gas however they can in a $4+ market. Our estimate of actual production that must be shut-in would be closer to 250 MMcf/d. However, physical basis will probably change rapidly as the gas is re-routed to near-by areas. Any repairs to the El Paso pipeline may delayed as investigators deal with the loss of life. Another consideration was a leak on an offshore ANR pipeline. This leak, expected to be repaired within 72 hours, will curtail about 200 MMcf/d. These factors all combined to propel natural gas to new all-time highs. Given the large advance, some pull back may be anticipated if these problems are corrected quickly and Debbie begins heading farther north. However, if pipeline repairs are delayed and Debbie stays farther south with a more westerly track, look for $5 in short order. Bottom line, very high volatility should remain. Longer-term, with the low injection rates, we think $5 gas is only a matter of when, not if (December was only 15 cents shy at $4.85). Nuclear generation is at 90,413 MW, which is 0.4% below last year and 94% of total capacity. CLOSING PRICES NYMEX OPEN HIGH LOW SETTLE CHANGE September 4530 4760 4530 4747 +311 October 4570 4775 4570 4752 +297 November 4630 4800 4630 4800 +270 December 4730 4850 4730 4862 +244 January 4700 4830 4700 4810 +231 February 4470 4530 4470 4540 +216 12-Month Strip 4350 +211 ~