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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (122854)	8/23/2000 12:37:52 PM
From: Petz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1578750

John F:<Intel should increase their output of 1 GHz and 1.13 GHz product. What else they have in their pocket for the 4th quarter I don't know, but I suspect that they are not on vacation, waiting for mid-year '01.> The 1 GHz PIII will increase, I grant you that, but judging from the thermal specs, the 1.13 GHz PIII will be a no-show for the rest of the year. Meanwhile, AMD will one-up iNTEL with volume production of the 1.1 GHz and limited output of the 1.2. What Intel has in their back pocket is the 1.4 GHz P4. But "hundreds of thousands" of units is a small drop in the bucket compared to 7.2 million Athlons, don't you think? Intel needs to make at least a million to have any effect on high-end pricing. <So you feel that the high end for AMD will balance the lower prices for Duron to achieve flat asp's in the 1st quarter?> Yes, I don't see increasing ASP's in Q1 because, well, its Q1. But I expect the high-end AMD chips to be fetching $400 - $500 from OEM's and the low end $50, with an overall ASP between $100 and $110. (Subtracting 15% from the low price on pricewatch is a pretty good estimate for what AMD actually gets.) Compared to right now, the big difference is that the low-end now (Duron + K6-2) is dominated by K6-2 which AMD can only sell for $45. By Q1 80% of these will be replaced by Durons selling for between $50 and $150. This gradual replacement is what will move the average ASP up, since I don't think the high-end prices will vary by much. Petz