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To: John Pitera who wrote (12997)	8/22/2000 7:36:13 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

John, just to put this in perspective: 3 billion barrels are a little less than what the world currently consumes in 6 weeks. the Caspian Sea fields which are actually the biggest new source of oil coming on stream can supply global consumption for a whole 6 months. the question remains, what then? what stood out about the find in Kasachstan was this sentence: "This was the largest undrilled structure in the world that was remaining and that was known about." in fact there's very little about the worlds petrochemical geology that isn't known by now. what is important to understand about the projection for the global Hubbert peak is that the discoveries yet to be made (the largest of which will be in the Middle East) are expected, and have already been factored in. the same goes for alternative sources for oil like tar sands that become viable with higher oil prices. oil isn't going to vanish overnight, but it's a non-renewable resource and is consumed at four times the rate at which new oil to replace it is being discovered. one day the resource will be gone completely. until then, we will see more and more of the worlds truly large fields peak in their recovery rates, and in spite of higher prices supply will eventually stop rising and begin to decline. a comprehensive change in the industrialized world's energy policies will be forced upon us sooner or later. the sooner the better actually.