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Technology Stocks : Macromedia...making a comeback? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: King David who wrote (2649)	8/23/2000 7:01:54 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 2675

On its face the news was unsettling - substantial deceleration in y/y growth for July. A little probing and it is much less unsettling. First, the data was for US sales in the distributor channel. This represents about 1/3 of their total sales. Second, it makes sense that the company would slow sales of mature product to distributors ahead of new product introductions. The reason is you don't want stale product stuffing the channel when you release the new versions. We know that sales growth slows in this quarter ahead of annual product releases early in Q4. The models reflect seasonality. Net net, it is negative news but not so negative to lop off almost 3/4 billion or 19% off the market cap. I wouldn't be surprised to see it go back down to low 60s or even high 50s on worries about the 3rd Q but, if it does .....