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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Now Shes Blonde who wrote (71403)	8/22/2000 9:15:12 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

After today's numbers I am not counting on a shoulder season this year. The numbers are mind boggling. If DOE's confirm then I am putting all my cash back to work at the open.

To: Now Shes Blonde who wrote (71403)	8/23/2000 10:57:44 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

<Does everyone sell the up coming rally,last one prior to the shoulder season ?> Blonde; good point; as the SI - SD sentiment meter is getting in the "red zone"... The OSX when it runs - really runs... 30 point legs seem to be where it traditionally shows fatigue. We had lots of basing around 115-120ish so 145-150 looks like a realistic "top" - off of this strength in Crude & the bullish supply numbers. But, untill we see that huge sequential earnings breakout - which I think comes off of Q4, or Q1 20001 reporting - anticipation I don't think we break thru 150 on crude news alone. To do so, I think it would an actual "Oil Crisis" - ie: $4o Oil to move thru 150 before that monster Q4/Q1 "sequential breakout" in earnings & backlog reporting hits... the political pressure on OPEC come their Sept meeting will be "HUGE" imo.- this sets up another crude pullback & a corresponding OSX retrace. The key here is to allow yourself to to ride any remaining unbridled breakout, but to NOT allow yourself to ride it all the way right back down, or to get sucked into a shoulder season selloff like we had last Sept - when the E&P's were sold as currency to ride the NASDQ breakout & that same scenario could well happen once again. There is going to be a great temptation for momenteum players to cash in this Oilpatch rally - perhaps on the next OPEC meeting given the political pressure pre-election for them to announce production increase & the resulting pullback in crude prices & rotate to Tech for what has become a near traditional fall rally. The way to play the Oilpatch here imo, is to keep raising stops up tightly right behind this rally - ride any remaining rally, but getting stopped out on any substantial retrace. - using tight trailing "Stops" is the key here imo. I've set stops to take 33% off the table on any pullback to OSX 128-130 and another stop order to get taken out on everything on any retrace to OSX 120-125ish. I'll continue to ride any remaining breakout - but, I get stopped out quickly on even a minor pullback & I'm all out at 120. - thus, I get the entire move to 160ish if seen, but also get all the money from 120-128 as a floor. I still see a great "Hat Trick" play here... as I think we could nearly simultaneously late this year, early 2001 see a new alltime OSX high, a return to near alltime highs in the NASDQ and a new low in the XAU - Gold mining stocks. The "dream" scenario for me is to : 1. Ride the OSX to new alltime highs 155-165 ish(Nov 2000 - Mar 2001) 2. Take the 1/2 OSX money (set tight stops on the remaining 1/2) & rotate to buy the Gold Stocks(unhedged XAU co's)at XAU 45ish 3. Short select NAZ stocks (QQQ puts etc.) at NAZ 4800, or any break thru the old 5000ish highs. We shall see.... ATW PGO GLBL OII SCSAY etc still look cheap & I like NEV as a "Crude leveraged" sleeper in the E&P side here - poor hedges coming off soon & very leveraged to crude prices - was a $40+ stock in the 97-98 boom. Also; if FGH holds here at $5ish - technically it's bottomed - I added some at $5 5/16ths here & will chase a bit down - sitting at $4 1/2 for a break to new lows if seen - where I will take a big position. With the income tax refund & asset sales; they've got the cash to survive - the junk bond does get placed imo; they are smart to pull it for more favorable terms and the fact that they can choose to "pull it" versus having to "take it" - shows me they are solvent - that's another bottomish sign imo. While they've got a long road to go and any dreams of any newbuild boom like 97-98 are just that - dreams; surely a good shot to see the mid, even high teens within 9 mos - a good shot at a triple. I merely think that we've reached a bottom as far as negative news & remember, the secondary was priced 30%+ above present prices... so, I like this $4/$5 area - they aren't going BK imo & news and sentiment can't get worse for FGH - it's all priced in here imo... worth a dip & again, you don't have to "like" the company, or management to "make money" playing a sentiment & technical bottom... Later ~

To: Now Shes Blonde who wrote (71403)	8/24/2000 9:51:11 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Blondie, Just to show you I am not a "blind" bull. ;o} Below are some bona fide oil patch "bear" articles. Slider will be pleased. :o{} Your question about the shoulder season is well taken. The only problem I have with it (and it's implications) is this: It seems that refiners are WAY behind in the production of HO. I think that refiners will have to stage a huge set of runs to get us any where near a normal build, will they not? The last runs that brought gasoline stocks back to the middle of the five year range resulted in a tremendous 11 million (or there abouts) draw in crude. So, is it not reasonable to assume the following: Even with additional Saudi crude the normal Oct. - Nov. build in crude may be very modest if, in fact, it occurs at all. Now, if 6% of refining capacity goes down in Sept. then the additional crude may in fact result in a normal to large build in crude stocks, but HO, gasoline, and distillates stocks (the stuff people actually use) will plunge to perilous levels, negating in the market place the crude build. OK Send in the Bears: ------------------------------------------------------------ thestreet.com oilandgasinvestor.com Howard Weil Head Eyes Lower Prices, But Better Equity Markets For any producer, $30 oil and $4.50 gas is music to the ears. But for a lot of investors, it has meant caution. “Many institutional investors believe that the price of both commodities has been too high of late,” says William H. Walker, president of Howard Weil Labouisse Friedrichs Inc. in New Orleans. “What they’d rather see is commodity prices come off a bit and use that as an opportunity to buy energy stocks.” Walker believes that’s exactly what the buy side will see over the next six months, as West Texas Intermediate crude prices retreat to the mid-$20s and natural gas prices ease below $4. “If Saudi Arabia can’t jawbone oil prices down, it’ll likely increase production, plus the recent high WTI prices we’ve seen will definitely have a dampening effect on demand. This, of course, is a formula for lower market prices,” he says. “On the gas side, $4-plus prices are going to create an awful lot of drilling in North America, and the resulting higher supply will similarly push gas prices down.” As oil and gas prices pull back, the equity markets should begin to come back this fall. Explains Walker, “It’ll be easier to sell energy stocks with oil at $25 and gas at $3.50 than selling the same stocks when oil is $30 and gas is $4.50. There’ll no longer be the issue in investors’ minds about the sustainability of high commodity prices. And in the case of gas, the market by that time will have a better idea about demand, storage levels, weather and pricing going into the 2000-2001 winter heating season.” His optimism about the industry’s access to equity this fall extends to the IPO market. He notes, for instance, that Energy Partners Ltd., a private New Orleans operator focused on Gulf of Mexico drilling, filed in early August to raise a proposed $125 million through such an offering. Howard Weil will be a co-manager on the transaction. As investor interest in the upstream warms up, Walker hopes the buy side will exercise discipline as it decides which producer stocks to favor. “Over the last 20 years, energy as a percent of the S&P has dropped from 26% to 6%, which means a lot of capital was wasted in the energy business, particularly the E&P sector.” Repeating a familiar mantra, he says that an E&P company with established management, a good acreage position and a healthy balance sheet is an ideal investment candidate. “With plenty of acreage, an operator has lots of drilling choices when prices are high, and with a solid balance sheet, he can buy other companies cheaply when prices are low. Indeed, there are still too many poorly financed energy companies chasing too few good prospects worldwide.” How long might energy stocks stay in market favor beyond this fall? Says Walker, “While many value investors have already bailed out of the energy sector, I’m finding from my travels on the road that there are still many other investors that think we’re only in the second or third inning of a nine-inning game.” --Brian A. Toal, Senior Financial Editor, Oil and Gas Investor