API numbers winging around bullishly this time:
news.ino.com
API Review: NYMEX up on surprise crude, distillate stock drops
Aug. 22-MAR--
[B] API Review: NYMEX up on surprise crude, distillate stock drops
--NY Oct crude up 53c as API stockpiles down 7.774 mln barrels
--NY Sep heating oil up 240 pts as API stocks dn 2.890 mln bbls
--NY Sep gasoline up 82 pts as API stocks dn 1.142 mln bbls
--API: US crude stocks down 7.774 mln barrels in latest week
--API: US distillate stocks down 2.890 mln barrels in latest week
--APIs imply US distillate demand 4.36 mln bpd vs 3.61 mln
--API: US gasoline stocks down 1.142 mln barrels in latest week
--APIs imply US gasoline demand 8.97 mln bpd vs 9.03 mln
--API: US refineries operate at 96.9% in latest wk vs 95.7% (rev)
By BridgeNews
New York--Aug. 22--NYMEX nearby energy futures surged in overnight
Access trade as American Petroleum Institute data surprisingly showed U.S.
crude stocks fell a whopping 7.774 million barrels last week, erasing the
previous week's gain, and distillates fell 2.890 million barrels, the
opposite of what was expected to have occurred. Gasoline stocks also fell,
by 1.142 million barrels.
* * *
API also reported that U.S. refinery utilization rates last week rose
by 1.2 basis points of capacity from the previous week's revised level,
compared to expectations for runs to have been flat to up only 0.2 points.
At 1740 ET, NYMEX nearby Oct crude was up 68 cents at $31.90 a barrel,
while nearby Sep heating oil was up 240 points at 92.75c a gallon. Nearby
Sep gasoline was up 142 points at 94.75c a gallon.
The data are for the week ended Friday, Aug. 18. The U.S. Department
of Energy will release its weekly inventory data on Wednesday after 0900
ET.
Brokers, traders and analysts had expected crude oil stockpiles to
rise, by 0.3 million to 0.7 million barrels due to fairly steady imports.
However, crude imports actually dipped slightly from the previous week,
according to the data, while refinery usage of crude jumped from the
previous week's revised level, API said.
Distillate inventories, which include both heating oil and diesel
fuel, were expected to have risen by 2.5 to 2.9 million barrels, showing
refiners starting to maximize distillate throughput in order to begin
building inventories ahead of winter. But fuel production last week
actually fell, overshadowing slightly higher imports and indicating that
demand considerably gained. Also, the previous week's distillate data was
significantly revised this week.
The drop in gasoline inventories was within expectations for a decline
of 0.8 million to 1.2 million barrels, due to anticipated steady demand
and a drop in seasonal output. But while overall output levels actually
rose slightly last week--and implied demand levels fell--much of the
previous week's gasoline data was revised, so last week's stocks still
managed to fall to expected levels.
CRUDE: Down 7.774 million barrels
Brokers and traders were again mystified by the API crude data and
said they have no plausible explanation to completely explain such a huge
decline in stockpiles, which exceeded both the amount of the drop in
imports as well as the increase in refinery usage of crude last week.
"These were much larger draws than anyone expected. Concerns will be
rekindled," said Thomas Blakeslee, analyst for Energy Merchant LLC.
Import levels last week fell 67,000 barrels per day to 9.137 million
bpd, while crude input to refineries rose to 16.050 million bpd, from the
previous week's 15.847 million bpd, leading many players to blame the
overall decline on APIs own extensive revisions to the previous week's
data.
"The major change in crude inventories was a result of an internal
correction by the API and shows up in the crude supply balance of the
summary page," one broker explained. " Last week, the crude supply balance
showed a positive 1.6 million bpd, and this week's balance is a negative
59,000 bpd."
Crude inventories for the previous week were adjusted upwards by about
1.1 million barrels, making the week-to-week draw actually nearer 9.0
million barrels. "Its looks like it's all a giant fudge factor," the
broker added.
Regionally, stockpiles fell the most, 3.399 million barrels, on the
West Coast, a region normally ignored by brokers and traders east of the
Rocky Mountains. Were it not for the drop here, the actual decline in
total crude inventories would be only about 4.4 million barrels.
On the East Coast, inventories fell by 2.161 million barrels while
Gulf Coast stockpiles fell 1.596 million barrels.
In the Midwest--which includes the key Cushing, Okla., pipeline hub,
the delivery point for NYMEX light, sweet crude futures--there was a drop
of 430,000 barrels. However, the Midwest year-to-year deficit widened only
20,000 barrels, from the previous week's 10.205 million barrels.
The Rocky Mountain region saw its crude inventories fall by 188,000
barrels.
But even though stocks fell in all region, the overall year-to-year
deficit widened to only 35.4 million barrels, from 32.8 million barrels
the prior week.
Regardless of the confusion surrounding the data's accuracy, brokers
and traders said the overall drop would still be positive for the NYMEX
market.
"This week's report is so dramatically bullish, (the revisions) will
be quickly forgotten," Blakeslee added.
"The import number of over nine million should have prevented much of
a draw down. Prices are likely to revisit $33 in near term."
DISTILLATES: Down 2.890 million barrels
The API data showing lower distillate stocks do not get close to
balancing, although most of the discrepancies can be explained by a nearly
900,000-barrel upward adjustment in the previous week's levels, brokers
and traders said.
Distillate fuel production unexpectedly fell 202,000 bpd from 3.8
million bpd the previous week, which overshadowed a 144,000-bpd increase
in imports from the previous week's 169,000-bpd level. But given also the
huge decline in overall stocks, the data implies that demand rose 750,000
bpd last week.
"Demand on diesel is more than the refiners can produce right now,"
Thomas Blakeslee said, although he noted that, "The entire draw in
distillate stocks came in diesel, which may prevent a complete runaway in
NYMEX heating oil."
The largest decrease in stocks, 1.086 million barrels, was in the
Midwest, followed by a West Coast drop of 867,000 barrels. One broker
suggested that the draw on the West Coast may be due to some material
being exported.
Stockpiles fell 272,000 barrels on the East Coast, the major
consumption region for heating oil, causing the year-to-year deficit there
to widen to 29.2 million barrels from 26.8 million barrels the previous
week.
Regards, t. |
