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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (30317)	8/23/2000 7:28:48 PM
From: johnzhang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

RE: Juniper's PS UF, Thanks for the cross posting news about Cisco/Juniper. After owning about 80 percent market share for the past year, Dell’Oro reports that Cisco lost six percentage points, slipping to 74 percent market share, in Q2. Who's picking up the slack? Juniper Networks Inc. (Nasdaq: JNPR), which increased its market share from 17.3 percent last quarter to 23.6 percent this quarter. Earlier, Tekboy also cross posted Bruce Brown's Price/Sale (PS) calculation that shows Juniper has the highest number: Juniper's TTM PSR = 213 Ariba's TTM PSR = 153.6 Brocade's TTM PSR = 110.5 Redback's TTM PSR = 109.8 Broadcom's TTM PSR = 87.3 Network Appliance's TTM PSR = 46.7 i2's TTM PSR = 34.4 Siebel's TTM PSR = 33.4 EMC's TTM PSR = 27.8 Cisco's TTM PSR = 24.9 Oracle's TTM PSR = 24.1 Microsoft's TTM PSR = 17.1 Intel's TTM PSR = 15.5 Sun Microsystem's TTM PSR = 13.2 Qualcomm's TTM PSR = 12.97 Nokia's TTM PSR = 8.7 Nortel's TTM PSR = 8.7 Conexant's TTM PSR = 4.2 Lucent's TTM PSR = 3.9 Dell's TTM PSR = 3.7 boards.fool.com; I did a quick calculation to see if Juniper's PS makes sense. Assuming its average growth rate for the next 4 years is 100% instead of last year's 500%, Juniper's sale could reach 4 billion in 2003, 40% of 10 billion router market share (the 10 billion market forecasting number is from Chris Larsen at Fool's GG board). Suppose then its PS drops to a conservative level of 25, Juniper would still be a double from today's level. Since the company will be growing at 100%, it could support a higher PS number. Optimistically, if its PS only drops to 50, Juniper's price would then appreciate 300% in 3 years. While nobody knows for sure what kind of PS juniper will have, this quick calculation supports Paul Johnson's assertion that Juniper at current level is fair valued to under valued. Best wishes, John