To: Sepster who wrote (1765 ) 8/28/2000 10:27:21 PM From: Sepster Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1945 Interesting mention of Inktomi as a monster stock in wireless infrastructure:zdnet.com The Next Monster Stocks by Tobin Smith September 2000 Fortunes will be made in the future of wireless: Third-generation Broadband systems. Get in before the window closes. It's a no-brainer. In the next decade, fortunes will be made investing in the future of wireless: the third-generation broadband mobile wireless network called 3G. ChangeWave Capital Management LLC, an investment company that specializes in emerging technologies, calls large-magnitude transitions like this a changewave. And any time hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending is about to happen, the company calls it a monster changewave. Funding changewaves has proven lucrative. By focusing its investment capital not in the service providers themselves but in the infrastructure and understructure that support these services, ChangeWave's investments have gone up in value 110 percent each year since 1995. We asked ChangeWave founder and CEO Tobin Smith to share his company's outlook for which wireless technologies and companies are likely to be the big winners in the year ahead. Here's what he had to say. The Big Picture Before investors can identify the wireless winners, they need to get a snapshot of the changewave. First, what exactly is the transformational technology? Right now it's the promise of a standardized global network that can transmit data at up to 2Mbps, making possible the integration of voice, data, and full-motion video. Second, who will use it? Mobile workers and what we call wireless lifestylers—people over the age of 15 who are heavy users of mobile telephony. And third, what's the potential market? We estimate it at some 250 million devices by 2005, or 25 percent of the world's estimated 1 billion cell phones. To find the key players, we map the changewave to identify the layers between the content and the end user, creating a virtual X-ray of the market opportunity. We look at the infostructure, the enabling content; the infrastructure, the enabling network hardware and software; the understructure, the enabling microchips and operating systems; the infrastructure service providers, the enabling infrastructure services; and finally, the retail service providers. Here's who to keep an eye on for broadband wireless.Infostructure Our favorite play here is InfoSpace. Its proprietary information network allows users to access important data from cell phones and conduct mobile e-commerce. The company has reselling agreements with virtually all the major wireless service providers and is service agnostic: It makes money no matter what service consumers choose. InfoSpace's business model is scalable: It earns an incremental profit every time someone needs a yellow pages listing, checks a restaurant recommendation, or orders flowers. This makes InfoSpace's profit margin expand as revenues go up.Infrastructure More than $100 billion will be spent on the 3G upgrade. Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola lead the 3G build-out contest. But don't count out Nortel Networks. It has just beaten Motorola out of a new $500 million contract and will win more. A sleeper in this space is Inktomi. Inktomi is positioning its dominant Internet traffic–caching system to take advantage of the tremendous growth in wireless. Its technology enables data transfers through wireless devices, the same way that it does through the Internet. Move further down the component food chain and you get the dominant base-station power amplifier player, Powerwave Technologies. And when it comes to the microwave equipment on top of the tower, you can bet that Anaren probably made it.Understructure Open up a Web-enabled wireless device and you'll see high-speed chips, digital signal processors, capacitors, and transmission chipsets. Our favorites here in high-speed gallium arsenide chips are RF Micro Devices and TriQuint Semiconductor, as well as the CDMA chipset monopoly Qualcomm. Go inside 70 percent of all wireless chips and you'll find ARM Holdings chip design—for which the company is paid a royalty on every sale. The dominant player in integrated chipset cores is Wavecom, which virtually has a lock on every phone Nokia and Samsung make. Go over to Ericsson and roughly two out of three phones contain an Anadigics power amplifier. Finally, the LCD screen is made by Three-Five Systems. Three-Five Systems is backlogged for up to a year for traditional displays; when 3G comes into play the company will prosper greatly and have much better pricing power.Infrastructure Service Providers Our favorite in this space is Wireless Facilities. Somebody has to actually build these networks, and it's not the infrastructure players. Wireless Facilities oversees everything from network planning and design to construction and maintenance. The company is doubling revenue and earnings over the most recent quarters and has doubled backlog contracts as well. Another way to play this game is with the companies who lease the towers. Our pick here is Crown Castle International because it has a footprint in both the United States and Europe. Crown Castle stands to benefit most from 3G deployment. Retail Service Providers Our favorite wireless service provider play is Voice Stream Wireless. Voice Stream recently completed its merger agreements with Omnipoint and Aerial Communications, making Voice Stream a true provider of nationwide wireless service. It is one of the few major U.S. wireless companies that is still independent. Its GSM operating system is well positioned to be upgraded to the new worldwide 3G systems. VoiceStream is a strong bet for the following reasons: Customer growth remains robust at 1.8 million total customers at the end of the first quarter this year, up 334 percent over the same quarter last year, while revenues are up 269 percent year-over-year and up 60.5 percent over the previous quarter. Also, VoiceStream's nationwide reach makes it an attractive acquisition target. High-Risk/High-Reward Grand-Slam Candidates We also always like to throw in a home-run candidate. Our long-shot choice is Sensar. Sensar has patented technology that could turn every phone into a browser for streaming, real-time color video and data. Soon the world will find out if Sensar's offering works—cell giant Orange is launching a pilot program to test the system. For more information about ChangeWave Capital Management's investing, visit our site at www.changewave.com. Tobin Smith is managing partner and CIO for ChangeWave Capital Management LLC. He is also the author of ChangeWave Investing: Picking the Next Monster Stocks of the New Economy (Bard Press, 2000).