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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (6337)	8/23/2000 8:46:44 PM
From: Bill Jackson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Scumbria,; Re; It is clear that JJ has no understanding.... And yet tens of thousands hang on his every word. He sounds like a false prophet extolling false profits etc. Bill

To: Scumbria who wrote (6337)	8/24/2000 11:23:31 AM
From: EricRR	Respond to of 275872

SSB and Willy and AMD and W: He is as qualified for his job as is Junior George for the presidency Yes but George's experts are better than Al's experts. Al doesn't have a record of surrounding himself with people smarter than he is, or listening to them. One could argue that its becasue Al's so smart. You have experience as a manager, how bad would such a flaw really be? I'm starting to think that we are going to see Willy in October, if not sooner. Intel marketing still is paranoid, and there is no way that they would ever allow AMD the chance to humiliate the Pentium 4 on its debut, with an equally clocked Athlon. Also, do you remember back in dec/january when the Register reported that Willy was being redesigned to compete with Athlon? We made fun of Mr Magee, but appearently he was right. Willy has a much bigger die size, and as Kap suggested, it likely in part results from a bigger trace cache. It really is a rush job. Also the Register reported a few months ago on Intel's mad rush to 1.7GHz for january. I believe that too now, considering that we will see a 1.5GHz Athlon then. But hte only "bad" thing that SSB explicitly said about Intel was that P4 would not be material to revenues until 2nd Half of 2001. This really is great for AMD. Intel will create demand for higher speed parts, and AMD will deliver in volume. There are two key things about the computer market: One is that there is only so much demand for the high end chip, what ever that is. $800 is usually the price limit. It doesn't matter what the speed is, the fastest chip usually sells for that. If willy is a good chip, (the jury is out), it will take this price spot. But the other point works in AMD's favor. The speed of the chip for which a company makes the most profit in total (not per chip), is called the "sweet spot." If customers hear that 1.5GHz is now the top of the line, they will raise the expectations of th sweet spot systems that they will pay for. Case in point is Emachines. They bet big on 500MHz Celeron systems, and when the market unexpectedly shifted up a few speed grades, got burned with unsellable inventory. AMD will be shipping in volumes in the sweet spot range. My guess is that it will be 1GHz by Xmas. Such a market shift offers AMD large upside earnings potential for Q4 , Q1 (01) and Q2 (01). Intel will not be able to offer a competing chip in volume at such speeds.