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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (107470)	8/23/2000 9:37:05 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

I just think that of all the etail dogs out there (and there are a lot) there really isn't any reason to dwell on amzn... sure amzn might go under but we know etoys and all the idealab barnyard has one foot in the grave so why not focus on those guys who are much more of a sure thing? Liz, You are very wise. The point is andI agree te money is not in the pure play e-tailers. There is work to do finding the winning manufacturers and developers of technology that is broadband, wireless, etc. Software enablers are very important in my opinion. The tools that I find to wor with for my on-line work are still lacking. Part is my knowledge is lacking. This also makes it difficult for me to know/believe a certain company has an edge. I am guessing too much. I have seen you knowledge of software and am jealous. There are some businesses, toys and home merchandise where the potential for a strong e-tailer to come in and cannibalize the b&m business (kind of what amzn did to books) still exists. I would not go as far as to say Amazon canabalized books but I believe it brought reading back o many people and book sales have increased. I know a lot of independants dissappeared. I do not have the total US book sales off hand but both Barnes and Noble and Boarders super stores are growing sales. I do not know if this is coming from th independants or the in mall divisions like Waldens or B Dalton. I guess there is a bunch I do not know<G> So, given that amzn can ship products now and can't survive long term with their debt etc, how much of a cash infusion is required to keep them alive?? Can they get that from a partner - and would a partner be willing to do this... my guess is yes. The alternative which is constantly bantered about here is total collapse, chapter 11 for amazon. B2C e-commerce is here to stay and will grow. My opinion is still that dual channel is necessary for survival. Amazon has a lot to offer possible as an outsource firm for brick and mortar firms and the web server for the. Similar to the TOY deal. The debt is so high I see a possible re-organization and then a move forward with less debt in this fashion. That would be my true guess. Amazon's entire problem as I see it is irrational exuberance with respect to their business, growing too fast, acquiring too many warehouses etc. It is not that people don't buy online - they do. But amazon failed in controlling their own growth. I admit to bein overly criticle of Amazon due to my losses incurred while short. I attribute that to stupidity on my part and irrational exuberance in te market. Management at Amazon also kept a lot of secrets and was the best at PR hype I have ever seen. I know I am still bittered by thi so pay close attention to their problems. More tha is warranted. On that note let's find some good investments:-)))) Glenn

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (107470)	8/24/2000 3:31:31 PM
From: Randy Ellingson	Respond to of 164684

Lizzie- Amazon's entire problem as I see it is irrational exuberance with respect to their business, growing too fast, acquiring too many warehouses etc. It is not that people don't buy online - they do. But amazon failed in controlling their own growth. Based on what you know, can you provide a very rough estimate of the sales Amazon would require to utilize 90% of their warehouse space? At which point it would be time to build another one or more, I suppose. Randy