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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (4314)	8/24/2000 11:37:22 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5867

Good article in the EE Times today. The following are some excerpts. ""But analysts agreed on Wednesday that the current business cycle will continue longer and stronger than previous cycles. "I think people are underestimating the strength of this cycle," said Clark J. Fuhs, vice president at J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. Fuhs left Dataquest as its chief semiconductor equipment analyst a couple of months ago to track chip supply and demand at the financial brokerage house. Fuhs said semiconductor unit growth "has been hanging in the 30-35% range for the last 6 to 8 months" compared to last year. He added that in the last three business cycles (in the late 1980s and '90s) the industry neve had been that high in chip unit growth. "We've never been +30% growth year-over-year." Semiconductor fab utilization, tracked by the U.S. government, continues to show American plants running at over 95% since late 1999, Fuhs said. He also noted that analog semiconductor sales continue an unprecedented run as the leader in growth. In the past 20 years, analog circuits have surged ahead of digital IC growth rates early in a semiconductor recovery, but that situation usually plays out within several months of the upturn, Fuhs said, citing market research at Dataquest during the early '80s. "We have been in the cycle [of recovery and strong growth] for a little over a year now, and analog is still leading the charge. So this is a tremendous cycle," he told the happy group of semiconductor capital equipment and materials executives. "We have been in this cycle now for a good year-and-a-half, and we think it has at least that far to go."" The entire article can be found at: semibiznews.com