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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim kelley who wrote (50994)	8/24/2000 1:57:26 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi jim kelley; Wow! All these replies! Gonna be having the 2 for 1 Hot Apple Pie special at McDonalds tomorrow evening!!! Actually, RDRAM is dead in the long run, but as I've stated numerous times, there will be systems built that use it for several more years. It's the new design wins that are getting scarce, and this summer is the time that I said that it would become obvious to all that DDR was the next memory standard. So P4 will come out with RDRAM, and then they will replace that interface with an SDRAM one, and ship in volume. Re the 300M DRAM chips shipped by Samsung. I've already admitted that error, the 300M was their figure for RDRAM shipments in 2001. About half that production would be by Samsung. Re: "Emmian did not say whether that DDR was going into graphics cards or PC main memory did he? How much of that DDR is going into graphics cards? I know now it 100% but what about next year?" Good question! First, lets estimate DDR production for 2001 based on the Samsung figures... I agree with your (our) calculations that they will produce about 920MM DRAM chips next year (or so). 15% of that will be RDRAM and 15% DDR. That gives Samsung DDR production of 140MM chips. The thing to remember next is that Samsung has a very high percentage of RDRAM production but has no great advantage in DDR production. The leading DDR producers are Hyundai, Infineon, Samsung and Micron (my guesses). I would expect that while Samsung will have 40% or so of RDRAM production next year, they will only have 25% at most of DDR production. That gives total DDR production of 140MM /0.25 = 560MM, or nearly twice that of RDRAM. Is all that going into graphics cards? That would sure populate a lot of graphics cards, but I think at least some will drip into the mainstream PC marketplace... -- Carl