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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71579)	8/24/2000 11:09:41 AM
From: ItsAllCyclical	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

>> I guess we won't have to worry about the OSX returning to 85 anytime soon << Actually I agree with that statement. Yes you can always come up with scenarios for taking us back to OSX 85 in the near term, but they're pretty damn unlikely to me. I respect that it's possible, but I won't put my money there. There are quite a few investors who would love to be in the energy sector if it pulled back 15-20% and oil prices dropped below $30 again. I don't see any (likely) mechanism that take us back below $25 oil anytime soon. Yes we could have a wave of profit taking etc, but I think many analyst are waking up to the fact that oil prices and NG are going to be tight for much of 2001 (especially with an average winter). Most of their forecasts originally called oil in the low 20's for most of 2001. Also if you listened to the radiowallstreet interview about day rates he talked about NBR's estimates for 2001 being around $1.50. He also said they are capable of earning that in one quarter if rates hit replacement rates. Is the OSX cheap now as a group? Not really. But it's possible it will look cheap within less than 6 months imho. I think the biggest danger (near term) is trading sideways. As always I don't trade the index. I'm not in the leaders. I would be taking profits in the leaders and rotating into laggards. If we see OSX 110 again (possible) it will not happen overnight. There will be plenty of time to take more profits imho. I do not recommend using any margin here.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (71579)	8/24/2000 5:47:11 PM
From: The Ox	Respond to of 95453

LOL! Slider, you are a riot! I was the one who posted yesterday's cheerleading, yeah baby post! I guess we won't have to worry about the OSX returning to 85 anytime soon<vbg>!" My, my - how soon we forget and isn't it allways those "late to the party" that are the one's eventually to be seen dancing on the table's celebrating; just before the lights come on & they then realize that most everyone else has allready left the party & it's time to go home (VBG) ? LOL - late to the party? Geez, I was helping the staff set up the tables and loaded the band's equipment off the truck! Just to refresh your memory, since it seems to fail you every now and then. Go back to December of 1998 on this thread and check out a few of my posts! We were both suggesting folks start buying OS stocks back when FLC and UTI were $5-$8/share and CAM and WFT were in the high teens or low 20s. Now I don't necessarially think this leg has ended....I'm not predicting an October 1997esque type of pullback to OSX 85 Oh, is that right? But you feel it's just time to throw some cold water on the flames and watch the steam rise<vbg> REMEMBER...that cheerleading post said ANYTIME SOON. Wait....isn't that what you just posted today? Hmmmmm So,criticzing profit taking on sentiment tops, let alone technical, or fundamental turns; is uncalled for - just as any "dancing on the tables" & crying the big bad wolf is dead - is as well. We aren't quite there yet & when we are; I hope to have allready cashed in quite frankly. DUH...isn't that what everybody wants...to be cashed out before the collapse? We very easily could see OSX 85 in a "worst case" scenario...... ....hey wait a second...didn't you just say you were NOT predicting such a scenario?? Now I'm really confused! This is a great time for savy Oilpatchers to take some profits on the toppy momenteum fav's here & to rotate some funds to either cash - to later buyback on pullbacks, or more importantly; to rotate to small caps , laggards & later cycle plays. That's how I am playing this portion of the Oilpatch cycle. Ah...I see, thanks for the advice. I really appreciate your sound reasoning. It makes it all clear to me now. Best of luck with your investments!! Just my 2 cents, Michael