Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2521)	8/24/2000 4:56:31 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

All the global fixed inc fund managers are stuck overweight euro-zone paper because they are all clients of the big brokerage houses, and receive recommendations from their institutional research teams, whom were all very bullish on the Euro at the end of last year and pushed the buy-side to increase their european exposure... Their targets mostly ranged from 1.06 to 1.12 by fall 2000. I always save hard-copy research from these firms because it makes for entertaining reading a year later. I remember one report in particular which trumpeted that the euro would be the 'star' currency of 2000.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2521)	8/28/2000 12:27:22 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

But Process will Take Years Seems right, Europe is facing some stiff beurocratic headwind. But the euro doesn't have years. If it doesn't get off the mat soon, Europe is going to have to rethink this whole reunification idea. Here's an interesting stat about economic dependency on oil. "The US economy is indeed much more energy-hungry than Europe: it needs the equivalent of 330 tonnes of oil to generate 1m of gross domestic product, compared with 190 tonnes in France and Germany and 140 tonnes in Europe. Furthermore, taxes on fuel in the US are minimal relative to those in most European countries. Rising crude oil prices translate more directly into higher consumer prices." On the surface, you'd think that rising oil prices would shift be bullish for the euro, and bearish for the usd. Not so. And especially not so if the euro gets whacked and the dollar rallies before the full inflationary effects of oil are felt in the us (in refined products, like HO this winter). I notice the JOC-ERCI inflation rate is now really slowing - dollar bullishness goes a Long way to erase the inflationary costs of raw materials.