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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (30446)	8/24/2000 1:44:12 PM
From: Jill	Respond to of 35685

Must look to the Horizon. V Here's an interesting ptnewell post from 7/26... Longer view by: ptnewell 7/26/00 12:00 pm Msg: 140591 of 151093 Longs: Always a wild ride with Rambus, folks. I think by now most have realized that the "news" yesterday was just the excuse for a sell off that was coming. All high risk/high reward stocks are being pummeled. Poor LSI sinned by meeting expectations and it is down about 33%. AMZN, PCLN, and other risky stocks are being pummeled also. In February, Intel announced both a RDRAM and a DDR chipset for the Williamette (now the Pentium 4). RMBS soared. The DDR chipset is still nowhere in sight, but RMBS is supposedly taking this hit because there might be a SDRAM P4 chipset late next year? With millions of RDRAM Pentium 4s chipping by Christmas? I don’t think so. With all the ups and downs one can lose the forest for the trees. A little of the big picture: Remember that pretty girl that rejected you? She’s getting older every year. Rambus longs have a similar confort. Conditions move inevitably in the direction of RMBS every month. RDRAM has the bandwidth. It is not twice as fast as SDRAM. It is 11 times as fast. PC800 RDRAM has 8 times the peak bandwidth and 11 times the effective bandwidth as PC100 SDRAM. DDR isn’t even close, it only doubles SDRAM. And that doesn’t count the QSRL recently introduced (another factor of 2, for 22 times SDRAM) or the upgrades in speed Samsung says will soon be possible with RDRAM. It is only because RDRAM is so damn fast that the comparisons are usually made with ONE RDRAM channel (16 bits or 18 with ECC) to four SDRAM/DDR channels (64 or 72 bits). The i820 uses only one channel. That’s just because CPUs aren’t fast enough for RDRAM yet. But with the P4 they are getting there. Any every day they just get faster. Intel can’t abandon RMBS. To do so, Intel would have to give up on selling faster CPUs (the high margin part of the game). Some tasks, like computing PI (3.14159…) to more digits, don’t take fast memory. But Intel knows there is no mass market for that. The mass market uses for a fast computer are things like high resolution graphics, streaming video, multitasking (your computer runs a TV screen while doing something else), games, videoconferencing... Everyone one of them requires high bandwidth memory. THERE IS NO MASS MARKET FOR FAST COMPUTERS WITHOUT HIGH MEMORY BANDWIDTH. Any sensible and knowledgeable person realizes that SDRAM cannot be a long term threat to RDRAM. Unless you think CPUs will stop at today’s speeds. I don’t know how bad the latest NASDAQ downturn will be, but I do know there is nothing out there remotely competitive with RDRAM long run. And it just keeps getting cheaper. And CPUs faster. RDRAM has what Vitesse, Sun, Sony, PMCS, and yes Intel needs bandwidth. They all chose RMBS because they can see the future. Oh yes – we already legally own 10% of the SDRAM market. With more to come.