Hi Don Green; Re: "Carl, could you go back in your database and pull out where you said anything close to. but as I've stated numerous times, there will be systems built that use it for several more years."
Always happy to oblige:
Jan 3, 2000:
While Samsung is saying whatever it can to try and keep the failing body alive, it is quite obvious to us design engineers that RDRAM is dead, dead, dead.
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Those of you who are investing based on the future of memory should take a good look at what memory design engineers are seeing today. This is information about what kinds of memory will be designed into products during 2000, it is not information about what kinds of memory were designed into products last year. Stuff that was designed last year is a lot more likely to have RDRAM, and you will continue to see product announcements from previous year's design wins. But the place to look is to the future, not the past. Design wins that RDRAM took last year are subject to redesign, as are pretty much any design win. That is what Intel is doing as fast as it can, with DDR and PC133 support coming out this year.
Since last year, there has been a change in Rambus' ability to sell to its customers, design engineers. Rambus screwed up incredibly badly, and they are now off the road maps of most design engineers. We just can't afford to design in a technology that even Intel can't make work. #reply-12443401
Dec 21, 1999
This is exactly what I have been saying for the past month. Direct Rambus DRAM is dead, dead, dead.
I am not saying that there will be no shipments of product containing it. What I am saying is that new design wins are not happening. I am not saying that the manufacturers have stopped pushing the technology, only that the design engineers are not seriously considering it anymore. #reply-12345679
Dec 17, 1999
As long readers of this thread are no doubt well aware, I believe that Rambus, as a dynamic technology for the future is dead, dead, dead. In fact, I've posted to that effect many times, complete with extensive links to articles in EE-Times. I still think that the technology isn't getting much in the way of new design wins (which is distinct from design win announcements, in that design wins come first), all we see now are the spasmodic involuntary movements of the technology's death throes. I know that memory designers are running away from this technology about as fast as they can, and I base my knowledge of the subject on the fact that I design memory for a living (when I'm not trading). #reply-12314399
Nov 26, 1999
As a mainstream PC technolgy, Rambus is dead dead dead, and isn't going to come back to life. The story is over. The book is closed. Products are coming out right now that were designed at a time that Rambus still had a chance, but new products are not being designed. There will, undoubtedly, be new uses for RDRAM announced in the future, and companies will design for it just in case, but as far as being mainstream technology, the story is over.
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But Rambus will remain alive as a niche memory for some years. In fact, if it were the case that Rambus were to become the standard memory interface, then RMBS is currently quite cheap. But that isn't going to happen. #reply-12107339
Nov 26, 1999
The thing to watch are design wins after the summer 1999 debacle, not design wins from 1998 and before.
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Sales of memory in 2001 are largely determined by design wins in 1999. Rambus died in mid 1999. You won't see product from early 1999 design wins until 2000, so you will see new products coming out that use Rambus. But that is a lagging indicator. The leading indicator is what design engineers are doing right now, and they know that Rambus is dead. Nintendo is just the tip of the iceberg. The vast majority of memory design wins go unmentioned in the press. The loss of the most important Rambus customer should indicate to even the most hopeful long that the technology is dead. You'll see the DDR-II when the design wins it is picking up start shipping. #reply-12107435
-- Carl
P.S. As long as I'm looking through old posts, the subject of the delays in DDR keeps coming up. Here is a post I made relatively recently showing that my forecasts for DDR have not slipped. (Of course I can't vouch for the estimates of other industry observers, some of whom have made estimates that are way off base.)
May 10, 2000
You wrote:
"Once again bilow you are talking 3 months out. What is it with you guys
anyway? DDR is always so so far off. Where is that motherboard? How far
off is it? Next year? Two years from now, or NEVER?"
This would possibly imply that my predictions for the big moment of truth for Rambus vs DDR have been slipping month for month. So I went back to late last year to see what I actually was saying 6 months ago. In short, my schedule hasn't slipped. It's just that it takes time for the industry to produce products. It is very obvious to design engineers what next year's products are going to be like, just as it is obvious to fashion designers what next year's coats are going to be colored. It's the general public that finds out late, not the designers. #reply-13657893 |
