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To: Apollo who wrote (30475)	8/25/2000 1:01:23 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Apollo, << I sure as hell hope Eric L. is wrong, and the 3G tornado spins a little sooner than 5 years >> I too, sure as hell hope Eric L. is wrong. The problem is, when you look at CDG's forecasts for CDMA subscriber growth out 5 years, realize that they are reasonable if a little optimistic, and that they include both cdmaOne and cdma2000 (all phases), and you come up with 60% CAGR ... you do not have the hypergrowth that constitutes the tornado (that we have enjoyed since 1997). Now there is some good news: * Qualcomm has essential IP in, and gets paid on W-CDMA. ... and some bad: * W-CDMA (3G Multimedia) is NOT near term and at a minimum it will be 3 years before tornado like growth is realized, IMO But: We are about to enter a "voice and data" 2.5G tornado. Subscriber growth might be the wrong metric since 2.5G is characterized by network reuse and faster handset replacement, and churn will be rampant (I am Verizon and I lose a subscriber to a TDMA-EDGE network today, but replace him with a churned AWE customer - my net subscriber add is zero but QCOM's meter just clicked). Also: CDG's numbers exclude China. (Wild Card) No 1x or 1xEV (HDR) overlays of a GSM or IS-136 network can yet be projected (a real WILD Card). "I sure as hell hope Eric L. is wrong". Interesting clip here: >> *U.S.: FALLING INTO MOBILE GAP?* news@2direct August 24, 2000 Most U.S. corporations are woefully unprepared to go wireless, according to a study of Fortune 1000 companies’ e-business plans. The research, conducted by TNS Intersearch for e-business consultancy Proxicom Inc., found that 52 percent of companies believe wireless transactions are "still at least five years away." But numerous studies have predicted fast growth for the wireless Internet and that mobile-commerce services will follow suit. Wireless research firm Ovum expects global mobile ‘Net users to grow from the current six million to close to 500 million by 2005. However, m-commerce is not without challenges: Fears of privacy and security have created speed bumps to mass adoption in the United States and other countries, as well as a lack of consumer awareness of the services. << - Eric -