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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (83302)	8/25/2000 10:41:16 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 132070

this Ed Hyman thing is new to me...anyway, perhaps we get the traditional autumn accident. i actually have a feeling that the hard landing may be on its way...just look at recent economic data, they're coming in incredibly weak all of a sudden, and we had massive inventory build-up in q2.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (83302)	8/26/2000 12:24:24 PM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

George, I think you are making a grave error looking at the VIX in isolation. The CBOE put/call ratio is quite high. I have previously said for months now that the April/May lows are in for this year. Next year is an entirely different story. But this market is a stock pickers market on the long and short side. I have a price target of 4450 on the COMP by the end of this year. Till the election, I think a strategy of continuing to buy the dips and selling strength will pay off. I think it is important to look at this market without the accompanying bullish or bearish biases. There are plenty of stocks that are selling at dirt cheap levels. I continue to see a moderate equity rally into the election and a Gore Victory.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (83302)	8/27/2000 11:52:50 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

George, I believe that the VIX was just under 20 last November, just before a massive rally on the NAZ. The VIX is a better indicator of fear than complacency, IMHO. I believe that the VIX has historically been below 10. I would use the VIX only as a supporting indicator for tops, extreme ( and "peaky") VIX readings at bottom are better indicators of fear than low readings indicators of "complacency". As for the market, somehow, I am not as bearish as most of the thread here, until the election is over and with Summers going into the market buying treasuries (adding liquidity), money will be seeking a "home", and the US market might be it. I would not be surprised to see some Japanese money ending up here as well. If you look at the Nikkei, it is not a pretty picture, yet the postal system's liquidity should find (at least a small part of it) home elsewhere, since it is not going massively in their market, maybe some of it is ending up either directly or indirectly here. Zeev