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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockHawk who wrote (30492)	8/25/2000 1:17:12 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 54805

the number of snakes that come crawling out predicting doom. It happens every time. Ever read the old testament? These people have been around thoughout history. I really believe that the basic difference between people who are Bears and Bulls is the level of Seritonin in their system.

To: StockHawk who wrote (30492)	8/25/2000 1:34:24 PM
From: areokat	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

StockHawk Go to the Emulex thread if you want to see what you wrote about in action. UF was right when he said there was panic on this thread this morning. Interesting to me was the "who do we blame" theme surfaced very fast. Kat

To: StockHawk who wrote (30492)	8/25/2000 4:24:27 PM
From: FaultLine	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

StockHawk, I was delighted to start off your "lessons learned" post this morning. I'd like to tell the thread that you were quoting a passage from a series of PM's you and I exchanged in June. Here is a little more: My wife and I entered the tech market in late Feb and promptly watched about half our substantial stake evaporate... ...during that time we read the revised manual and I read every single G&K post (whew!) ...As the FAQ says, the newbies can act as "beaters" for a while and that is exactly what I am doing. I've watched the "old-timers" here for seven months now - it has been a fascinating and confidence building experience. At first, I wondered if the talk here was false bravado - but, no, I've decided this is the Real Deal. Because of my modest investing experience, I've been contributing to several MF threads rather than here, but over time I sincerely hope to become a contributor to this thread while standing on the shoulders of uf, MB, LB, BB, tb, DS, SH, and many others. Pehaps, after another year ot two, you'll start seeing a little progress (and I'll be sure to remove my baseball cleats...<g>). Thanks all, FaultLine (the investor formerly known as tekflyer) P.S. I really did pick my original handle based on our own UNPARAGONED tekboy but he kept embarrassing me, so... <ggg>

To: StockHawk who wrote (30492)	8/25/2000 11:57:41 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

you mean someday QCOM will actually start going up again rather than down? yeah, right. ctb/A@maybebytekbaby'sbarmitzvah.com

To: StockHawk who wrote (30492)	8/26/2000 3:55:35 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Good post,SH. The doomsters promote various fallacies. One is that since stock prices are at a record high in comparison to the GNP this means that they have to go down a lot. The truth is that in 1929, their favorite comparison year of the fallacy, a far smaller fraction of the economy took place inside of public companies. A far smaller fraction of the population worked in publicly traded companies. Despite the famous Montgomery Ward and Sears, retail was mainly mom and pop. Hotel chains, restaurant chains etc. were in their very early stages. Even manufacturing went on, to a much greater extent than now, in many small companies. Economy of scale was not great. Unfortunately I don't have exact figures on the relative fractions of the economy which was carried out in public companies, 1929 versus 2000. But the ratio is large. Another fallacy is that the rate of technological change is exaggerated by us tech stock investors. Back in the 1920's, the era of the beginning of commercial radio and the popularization of the automobile, the increase rate of the GNP was faster than now. Hey, you could involve the average person in the car boom, both as employee and end customer. The technology businesses of today typically hire highly educated people and sell to highly educated people. Only certain products, e.g. cell phones, are sold to the man on the street. For example, alone of the major countries of the world, the U.S. hasn't switched to the metric system. That's because it would involve the average person, who is definitely undereducated for the times. E-books, for example could become a rapid growth area, but not for picture oriented folks who simply aren't readers. The products of JDSU, CSCO, ORCL are not, as far as I know, bought by the man on the street. So there is intense activity and rapid growth in technology but it is not multiplying the work force as fast as it is growing. More educated people would increase the growth rate, but they are simply lacking and the great tendency now is for our favorite gorillas to become world wide companies, in search not only of markets but also of productive ability, which won't be found in people with average education. Finally, I continue to be amazed at the growth rates we are finding in, for example, NTAP, SEBL, VRTS, etc. Way back when, 25% a year was simply astounding. Why shouldn't the P/E's be much higher now? Of course the higher P/E brings more volatility. My personal response to the volatility is to devote a portion of the portfolio to calls, way over the market and puts way under the market. Cash dividends stabilize prices, and slow the growth. We probably don't want to pay the price for decreased volatility. The volatility comes with the territory of rapid growth.