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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elmer who wrote (1479)	8/26/2000 10:33:06 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

If you had talked -- early -- to physicians in the Idec lymphoma trial, you'd have lost all your money. You want to know if antigen-negative variants appear at a high frequency in the course of therapy. I found one encouraging abstract for you. Go try to find more pros and cons from the literature, and then force IR to become an independent and unbiased research resource for you. This is easy to do. It takes more than a couple of days, but it almost always allows you to separate the bs companies from the "Agourons" of the world. Even "Agourons" get blindsides. Drug development is risky. Biotech investing -- (1) get an angle on the odds through contact with those with appropriate technical backgrounds, and (2) avoid companies that are willing to stick you with bs. Please, please, please, please note that I am not commenting on the quality of projects or communications from DNDN. I am interested in the company, and hopeful for modest successes. I'm just not interested enough in the business plan to focus my research on them. I can and will comment that not all was as peachy in the early days of Immunex as some would have you believe. We've been in a bull biotech market. Our account balances make us all look like geniuses. When it gets tough again, one can leave the sector and hunt for different routes to success, or one can learn how to make good money in "stock-picker's heaven", aka "biotech".

To: Elmer who wrote (1479)	8/26/2000 10:44:03 AM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

Will they give me a play by play? I've never tried asking. I hope that physicians have better stuff to do than talking to investors. In one Gilead trial, a physician was eager to dismiss rumors about liver toxicity. Many investors went merrily about their business, oblivious of the real issues with kidney. This is a simple start.... it's a question to ask of DNDN, and I have ZERO bias. Simply ask..... if you chose to extend the Mylovenge strategy to B lymphoma, what is the evidence, pro and con, that it would work? If they don't discuss Idec's observations and ongoing work at Vical, then you need to force them into a corner. A "generic" IR team is almost never prepared to deal with a demanding and educated shareholder. However, if you force them to go "internal" and collect opinions from key scientists, you can separate the teams that will engage in BS from those who engage in optimism. It will take some time, and it will take having external expertise to bounce stuff off of, but you will be able to make the separation. At that point, you've got an angle.